Across Asia, leaders are facing an increasingly difficult choice: how to navigate the turbulent waters of Donald Trump’s foreign policy. The former president, known for his transactional approach and blatant use of economic and political pressure, is once again a significant force, and his return to power poses a stark challenge to regional stability and prosperity. While the temptation to appease Trump and his “extorter-in-chief” tactics may seem like the path of least resistance in the short term, experts warn that such a strategy could prove disastrous for Asia’s long-term interests.
Trump’s history is replete with examples of employing tariffs, sanctions, and diplomatic bullying to extract concessions from countries he deems unfair trading partners or strategic rivals. From forcing renegotiations of trade deals to demanding increased contributions to defense alliances, his administration consistently prioritized unilateral gains over multilateral cooperation. The potential revival of these aggressive tactics is sending shivers down the spines of Asian policymakers.
“The allure of cutting a quick deal with Trump to avoid being targeted by his next trade war or geopolitical maneuver is understandable,” says Dr. Lin Wei, a senior fellow at the Institute for Asian Studies in Singapore. “However, rolling over in the face of his demands will only embolden him to push further. It sets a dangerous precedent that undermines the rules-based international order and ultimately weakens Asia’s collective bargaining power.”
Several Asian nations, particularly those heavily reliant on trade with the United States, are particularly vulnerable to Trump’s pressure. Concerns are mounting that he could once again target countries with large trade surpluses, forcing them to concede lucrative market access or face punitive measures. The prospect of renewed tensions in the South China Sea, with Trump potentially leveraging military and economic pressure to further his agenda, is also a major source of anxiety.
The danger lies in the long-term consequences of prioritizing short-term appeasement. By succumbing to Trump’s demands, Asian nations risk:
- Undermining Regional Cooperation: Caving to bilateral pressure can fracture regional alliances and initiatives like the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), which are crucial for fostering stability and economic growth.
- Setting a Precedent for Future Extortion: Appeasement sends a signal that bullying tactics work, potentially encouraging other powerful nations to adopt similar strategies.
- Weakening the Rules-Based Order: Trump’s disregard for international norms and institutions threatens the very foundations of the global system, on which Asia’s prosperity and security depend.
Instead of succumbing to pressure, experts recommend that Asian nations adopt a more proactive and unified approach. This includes:
- Strengthening Regional Alliances: Solidifying existing partnerships and forging new ones to collectively address shared challenges and present a united front against unilateral pressure.
- Diversifying Economic Partnerships: Reducing reliance on any single trading partner and exploring new markets and opportunities to mitigate the impact of potential trade disputes.
- Investing in Domestic Resilience: Strengthening domestic economies and infrastructure to better withstand external shocks and pressures.
- Upholding the Rules-Based Order: Actively promoting and defending international norms and institutions that ensure fair trade, peaceful dispute resolution, and respect for sovereignty.
The path forward for Asia is clear: resisting the temptation to appease Trump’s extortionist tactics is not only a matter of principle but a strategic imperative for safeguarding the region’s future stability and prosperity. Kowtowing to the “extorter-in-chief” may offer a temporary reprieve, but it ultimately paves the way for a more volatile and unpredictable future, leaving Asia weaker and more vulnerable. The time for united action and strategic resilience is now.
