Three weeks after US President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the whole world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout.
A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.
The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the US will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.
The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.
“Our new growth projections will include notable markdowns, but not recession,” IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said on Thursday. “We will also see markups to the inflation forecasts for some countries. We will caution that protracted high uncertainty raises the risk of financial-market stress.”
Those clouds shrouding the global economy are unlikely to lift for a while. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Wednesday that the US central bank is is “well positioned to wait for greater clarity” before considering changes to monetary policy, while European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde couldn’t say whether uncertainty has peaked.
In the meantime, Georgieva is hoping the coming days, which also feature a meeting of Group of 20 finance chiefs, might lower the temperature in global trade relations.
“We need a more resilient world economy, not a drift to division,” she said. The Washington gatherings “provide a vital forum for dialogue at a vital time.”
In the US, investors will watch for any additional deterioration in consumer sentiment and inflation expectations when the University of Michigan issues revised data April data on Friday. Tariffs, and the risk they pose to both the economy and inflation, have been on the mind of survey respondents in recent months.
On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book will offer anecdotes of regional economic conditions and provide a glimpse into how much government policy and uncertainty are affecting business decisions.
Earlier that day, the government is expected to report a marginal increase in March new-home sales. With mortgage interest rates largely stuck above 6.5% since October, builders have been trying incentives to get buyers off the sidelines. Home resales data will be issued on Thursday.
Further north, the Canadian election campaign enters its final week, with polls suggesting that Prime Minister Mark Carney’s Liberals are about five points ahead — putting them within reach of a majority government amid a volatile trade war with the US.
A key architect of Canada’s response to the US tariffs, trade negotiator Steve Verheul, is set to speak at a conference in Toronto. Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty.
In Asia, the week kicks off with China reporting loan prime rates on Monday; economists predict a steady outcome. Recent data showed growth beating forecasts.
Also on Monday, Indonesia publishes trade data for March, which will provide an indicator of the health of the country’s external sector before Trump’s tariffs kicked in, while the Philippines is likely to post another balance-of-payments surplus for March.
On Tuesday, New Zealand publishes trade figures for March while Taiwan and Hong Kong report employment data.
The following day, Indonesia’s central bank is likely to hold rates for a third straight meeting in an effort to support the rupiah — one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies this year.
The same day, preliminary April PMI data for Australia, Japan and India will provide an early look at any impact on the manufacturing and services sectors from the US-led trade war.
