More than half of mainland Chinese citizens oppose the use of force to unify with Taiwan under any circumstances, according to a survey released on Wednesday.
The study, designed jointly by the Atlanta-based Carter Center and Emory University, found that 55.1 per cent of respondents agreed or somewhat agreed with the statement that “the Taiwan problem should not be resolved using force under any circumstances”, while 24.5 per cent disagreed or somewhat disagreed. A fifth of respondents were neutral.
Yet on Russia respondents expressed more hawkish views: 66.1 per cent said it was in China’s national interest to support Russia’s actions in Ukraine, while 5.8 per cent disagreed and 28.2 per cent felt neutral.
On India, 79.7 per cent of respondents supported maintaining Beijing’s border claims with the South Asian country even at the risk of conflict, while the rest, about a fifth, preferred a more diplomatic approach.
Similarly, 81.1 per cent believed that the Philippines and Vietnam should respect China’s sovereignty claims over the South China Sea and cease their objections, regardless of what international law says.
The online study of 2,211 Chinese citizens aged 18 and 54 was conducted between September 1 and 25 by survey company Dynata. The sample was designed to reflect the demographic distribution of the country’s internet-using population.
Surveys of Chinese citizen views on foreign policy are rare, and experts have voiced concern that respondents may hold back in conveying their true beliefs for fear of government retaliation.
It is “becoming increasingly difficult to get good representative samples” in China, said Rory Truex, a political scientist at Princeton University, adding that researchers must often therefore rely on convenience samples.
Exact percentages in Wednesday’s survey should be interpreted cautiously, said Truex, who was not involved in the study. But he believed the results clearly indicated there may be significant public opposition to a Taiwan takeover by Beijing.
And that opposition may matter to Beijing.
“Increasingly, in the China field, there’s a sense that this regime does have a real responsiveness to it,” Truex said, while noting that the attention was selective and not consistent across all issues.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of China to be reunited by force if necessary. Most countries, including the US, do not recognise Taiwan as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any attempt to take the self-governed island by force and is committed to arming Taiwan.
In recent years, Washington has grown increasingly anxious about a mainland takeover of Taiwan, with some officials eyeing 2027 as a possible window and warning that Chinese President Xi Jinping might use an invasion to divert attention from mounting economic troubles.
Despite results showing high opposition to the use of force, Wednesday’s survey also revealed that many Chinese may accept eventual military action.
Only 18.1 per cent of respondents said there was “no military action needed” when asked how long China should wait to resolve the Taiwan issue before using force.
Given the option of waiting for one, five, 10, 25 or more than 25 years, the most common response – selected by 33.5 per cent – was “within five years”.
An earlier survey, conducted in two waves between late 2020 and early 2021 and later published in the Journal of Contemporary China, found that a slim majority of Chinese citizens – 55 per cent – backed a full-scale war to achieve unification with Taiwan.
That result came alongside similar levels of support for military coercion short of war (58 per cent), economic sanctions (57 per cent) and maintaining the status quo (55 per cent).
Respondents in the Carter Center-Emory University survey were not explicitly asked about a potential conflict with the US. But when asked what they thought of the US and its people, only 23.5 per cent said they had a favourable or somewhat favourable view.
About 70 per cent, however, were found to support “friendly and peaceful” relations between the two countries “to continue China’s prosperity and economic development”.
