Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s enthusiasm that the country might soon overcome its reliance on rare-earth imports drew attention as the ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) sought public support before the 8 February lower house election.
Takaichi specifically referenced the retrieval of deep-sea mud near Minamitori Island as a promising step forward. Yet recovering seabed material is only an initial technical step. The far greater challenge lies in processing it into usable form, securing stable extraction and transport, attracting private investment, and managing environmental risks.
With refining capacity still limited and imports dominated by China, meaningful supply independence remains a distant prospect despite progress on the ocean floor.
At a street rally during the campaign, Takaichi said:
On rare earths, we received encouraging news: we have finally succeeded in retrieving rare-earth-bearing mud from the extremely deep seabed around Minamitori Island—about 6,000 meters down. Japan will no longer need to worry about rare earths, neither for this generation nor the next.
Rare earths are a group of 17 critical metallic elements—including scandium, yttrium, and lanthanides—that are indispensable to high-tech products and military equipment such as smartphones, electric vehicles, wind turbines, robots, drones, and fighter jets. Their unique magnetic, optical, and electrical properties make them foundational materials for modern precision manufacturing and emerging industries.
According to the US Geological Survey, global rare-earth mine production reached about 390,000 tonnes in 2024. Output from China accounted for about 70 percent of the global total. China dominates not only raw extraction but also separation, refining, and downstream processing. About 90 percent of global rare-earth refining and smelting capacity, as well as most production of rare-earth permanent magnets, is concentrated there.
China is also Japan’s largest source of rare-earth imports, accounting for roughly 60 percent of the total. After a Chinese fishing vessel collided with Japanese patrol ships near the Senkaku Islands in 2010, China effectively halted rare-earth exports to Japan, disrupting the country’s high-tech supply chains. In January this year, China announced tighter export controls on dual-use goods, including rare-earth-related products, underscoring their strategic importance in global supply chains. Whether Japan can build its own rare-earth production and processing system has become a key question for its economic security.
Takaichi’s ‘encouraging news’ refers to an announcement by a research team from the University of Tokyo that it had successfully retrieved seabed mud that may contain rare-earth elements from a depth of about 5,700 meters within Japan’s exclusive economic zone around Minamitori Island. The researchers have surveyed the area since 2010 and believe it to be rich in such resources, with related findings published in a British scientific journal.
The latest operation was designed to confirm technical feasibility. Researchers lowered pipes from a vessel to inject seawater into the seabed to loosen the sediment, then pumped the mud to the surface, verifying equipment performance and operational procedures. Even if technically feasible, long-term large-scale extraction—and its economic viability—remain uncertain.
Transport and refining pose further challenges. Deep-sea mining has long been considered costly, requiring large vessels to operate continuously. Extracted mud must undergo pre-treatment before refining and be transported long distances, all of which tend to raise costs compared with land-based mining. A stable supply of rare earths depends not only on extraction and transport, but also on removing impurities and completing complex refining processes.
Environmental concerns are also significant, as with the production of all rare earths. Refining requires large quantities of chemicals such as hydrochloric and sulfuric acid, raising questions about pollution control and the environmental impact around processing facilities.
Takaichi’s claim that Japan ‘will no longer have to worry about rare earths’ appears more like a political statement—leveraging her popularity to boost the LDP ahead of the election—than a conclusion supported by solid evidence.
The successful retrieval of seabed mud does mark a first step in Japan’s effort to secure its own rare-earth supply. But key questions remain whether stable extraction and transport can be achieved; whether the project can attract private investment or will need, for example, government guarantees; and whether refining can proceed under effective environmental safeguards. Japan’s ability to meaningfully reduce its dependence on Chinese rare earths will hinge not only on bringing resources up from the seabed, but also on building a sustainable domestic refining system.