Taiwan is concerned that China could exploit the US’ war in the Middle East, with state media citing examples from the conflict to cast doubt on the efficiency of US weapons Taiwan would use to repel an invasion.
Taiwanese officials said the resumption of Beijing’s large-scale air force incursions near Taiwan after an unusual decline show that China wants to take advantage of the redeployment of US forces from East Asia to the Middle East.
“This is a moment for China to exercise influence,” a senior Taiwanese security official said, speaking on condition of anonymity.
“What China is trying to create is a sense that when the US shifts forces away and Indo-Pacific strength is redirected to the Middle East, tension and instability should be manufactured,” they said.
Deployment of US military resources across regions has always been balanced, so the move was unlikely to create a gap for China to attack, the source added.
The Ministry of National Defense cited comments this month by Minister of National Defense Wellington Koo (顧立雄) that China’s “intention to annex us by force has always existed.”
In Washington, a US Department of State spokesperson said that the US military’s capacity to handle simultaneous global threats remains “formidable,” adding that Washington is committed to preserving peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait.
A long war could deplete US arsenals, divert attention from the Indo-Pacific region and fuel domestic anti-war sentiment, Taipei Medical University international relations professor Chang Kuo-cheng (張國城) said.
“All these factors may lead [Chinese President] Xi Jinping (習近平) to believe that, in exerting greater pressure on Taiwan or even using force against Taiwan, his position would be stronger than before this war began,” Chang said.
The longer the war lasts, the more lessons it offers for China regarding US military thinking and response scenarios for a possible Chinese move on Taiwan, he added.
US allies in Asia have also warned that the Iran war could sap defenses against China.
‘COGNITIVE WARFARE’
Taipei is wary of Beijing using the Middle East war in its “cognitive warfare” propaganda, such as artificial intelligence-generated videos circulating online saying that Taiwan is facing a “devastating” energy supply crisis, the government said in an internal memo.
“They want people to think that one day, when Taiwan is again encircled by the Chinese military, the public will lose confidence in energy issues,” another Taiwanese security official said.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office yesterday touted improved infrastructure as a benefit of “reunification,” offering a “rapid transit link,” including a Taipei-Beijing expressway.
The comments came after China offered Taiwan “energy security” if it agreed to be ruled by Beijing — which Deputy Minister of Economic Affairs Ho Chin-tsang (何晉滄) dismissed as more cognitive warfare.
Chinese state media view the Iran war as having implications for conflict with Taiwan, as the nation’s weapons are mainly supplied by the US, despite a lack of formal diplomatic ties.
Taiwan’s radar stations could share the fate of similar US equipment reportedly destroyed in Iranian attacks, Institute of Taiwan Studies Chinese Academy of Social Sciences researcher Liu Kuangyu (?匡宇) said.
Taiwan’s radars would be “instantly reduced to scrap metal” in “saturation attacks” by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, Liu said.
The US has not confirmed such attacks by Iran.
The military channel of China’s state broadcaster has played up the alleged poor performance of some US weaponry, citing a fire on the Gerald R. Ford aircraft carrier as an example.
“From the outbreak of the war up to now, the real combat performance of US weapons and equipment has differed markedly from the image widely perceived by the outside world,” it said on its WeChat account on March 16.
‘GREAT OPPORTUNITY’
The war affords China an opportunity to observe US military operations, especially high-end military assets such as the F-35 jet, American Enterprise Institute in Washington defense analyst Todd Harrison said.
“They’re also going to be collecting [data] on how well our air and missile defense systems work, and how we employ them,” Harrison said.
Taiwan, which has proposed extra defense spending of US$40 billion, is keenly watching the prospects for a summit of US and Chinese leaders in Beijing, now postponed.
The government expected the talks would cover Taiwan, but had no way to influence them, Mainland Affairs Council Deputy Minister Shen Yu-chung (沈有忠) said.
“However, we must… present a clear and consistent message to the outside world, that we are determined to rely on our own national defense to safeguard our sovereignty,” he said.