On Tuesday night, and with 90 minutes left on his own doomsday clock, Donald Trump announced a breakthrough in the war with Iran: a two-week ceasefire.
“Subject to the Islamic Republic of Iran agreeing to the COMPLETE, IMMEDIATE, and SAFE OPENING of the Strait of Hormuz, I agree to suspend the bombing and attack of Iran for a period of two weeks. This will be a double sided CEASEFIRE!” he wrote on Truth Social.
On the face of it, his threat had worked. That morning, Mr Trump had issued a grave ultimatum to Tehran: reopen the Strait by 8pm EST (1am BST) or “a whole civilisation will die tonight”.
But the reality was not so straightforward.
On Tuesday morning, before he posted his ultimatum to Truth Social after weeks of extending the deadline, Mr Trump had reportedly expressed in private that although negotiations with the Iranians had been “very serious”, he did not know whether a deal could be reached.
He fired off his salvo, threatening to destroy Iran’s bridges and power plants if leaders did not agree to open the Strait of Hormuz.
“We will find out tonight, one of the most important moments in the long and complex history of the World… God Bless the Great People of Iran!” his post concluded.
While the world braced for an escalation that would see no way back, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s peace envoys, searched for a solution alongside some of Pakistan’s top diplomats.
Mr Witkoff is also said to have a direct channel of communication with Iranian officials including Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister.
In the other corner was China, who reportedly pressured Iran to accept the terms of the ceasefire – presented by Pakistan – at the 11th hour, according to The New York Times.
Talks had so far been indirect. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey had passed messages between the US and Iran over the past two weeks as they desperately tried to avoid a global recession caused by the effects of rising energy prices on markets, as well as more death and destruction in the region.
On the morning of the ceasefire announcement, following Mr Trump’s warning, Tehran ruled out direct talks completely. Before that, progress had been slow. Mr Trump has repeatedly imposed deadlines linked to threats, only to extend them.
On Monday, Iran officially rejected a ceasefire proposal.
“We won’t merely accept a ceasefire,” an Iranian spokesman said. “We only accept an end of the war with guarantees that we won’t be attacked again.”
Insiders said this was the key challenge. Tehran had not trusted Mr Kushner and Mr Witkoff since the US had carried out military strikes on Iran hours after talks had concluded in February.
Following the rejection, Iran handed over a 10-point plan to end the war, which included “an end to conflicts in the region, a protocol for safe passage through the strait, reconstruction and the lifting of sanctions”. Pakistan relayed the plan to Mr Trump’s negotiating team.
Iran’s reply was “significant, but not good enough”, the US president said, speaking at a White House Easter event, standing beside a giant rabbit, on Monday.
However, the White House is thought to have privately seen their willingness to engage as encouraging.
“The last proposal we got wasn’t really what we wanted, but it was a lot better than we expected,” a US official told Axios.
Pakistan, alongside mediating countries from the Gulf, is said to have begun working with the Iranians on amendments and redrafting the proposals.
Late on Tuesday evening, Shehbaz Sharif, Pakistan’s prime minister, posted on X that diplomatic efforts had been “progressing steadily”, while urging Mr Trump to extend the deadline for a ceasefire to two weeks and Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz.
The edit history on the post shows that the initial draft was labelled as “Pakistan’s PM Message on X”.
Given that it would be unlikely for someone from within the Pakistani government to state Mr Sharif’s nationality, it is possible that another country, such as the US, may have written the statement and sent it to Islamabad.
On Monday, there were reports that Pakistan had authored a draft proposing an immediate ceasefire, known as the Islamabad Accord, but this does not seem to have taken hold.
Asim Munir, Pakistan’s army chief, appears to be the favoured person to mediate talks between Tehran and Washington. He is thought to maintain close ties to the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps and also met Mr Trump twice in 2025, who showered him with praise, describing him as his “favourite field marshal”.
His links to both countries put Field Marshal Munir in a unique position as the preferred middleman between the warring sides.
A source in the Pakistani government told The Telegraph: “Absolutely, Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, was the key negotiator.
“Trump places significant trust in him and values his insights on the Middle East, particularly Iran.”
Field Marshal Munir also brought China on board in negotiations despite Beijing’s previous reluctance to help reopen the Strait of Hormuz, since its ships had been allowed free passage.
Pakistan, which shares a border with Iran, has been one of the hardest hit by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which it imports oil, gas and fertiliser.
Until now, Mr Trump’s administration had been careful not to identify the key waterway, through which around 20 per cent of the world’s daily oil passes, as a mission objective.
He said it would be up to European allies – who rely on the strait – to “seize it” and get the world’s oil supply going again.
But with November’s midterm elections looming and his approval ratings nosediving, Mr Trump deemed it too much of a risk not to at least appear to be tackling the issue.
Meanwhile, the US struck Kharg Island overnight. The island is Iran’s economic lifeline that handles 90 per cent of its oil exports.
It was a sign of the US’s determination to show that this was no bluff.
At the same time, Israel bombed Iranian railway bridges, killing at least two people.By midday, although reaching a ceasefire deal by the deadline still felt like a long shot, the mood in the White House had shifted from “can we get there?” to “can we get there by eight o’clock tonight?”, a US official told Axios.
Meanwhile, Mr Vance told a press conference in Budapest that the US had accomplished almost all of its military objectives and “very shortly, the war is going to conclude”.
The vice-president, who had been primed for days to tag in should talks advance, said: “The ball is in Iran’s court.” As the hours ticked by, everyone from Pope Leo to the actor Ben Stiller called on the president to back down. At the same time, the administration fielded calls from executives and political allies trying to decipher whether Mr Trump was bluffing.
Then came the breakthrough. Three hours before the deadline, Iran said it was “positively” reviewing Pakistan’s proposal.
Mr Trump, who is thought to have been holed up in the Oval Office all day, was considering the proposal and would issue a response, the White House said.
The ceasefire gives Mr Trump a win, or at least the appearance of one, at a moment when it really mattered. Time will tell whether it, along with the Strait of Hormuz, will hold.