Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s comment last year on Tokyo’s potential reaction to a Taiwan-China conflict has forced Beijing to rewrite its invasion plans, a retired Japanese general said.
Takaichi told the Diet on Nov. 7 last year that a Chinese naval blockade or military attack on Taiwan could constitute a “survival-threatening situation” for Japan, potentially allowing Tokyo to exercise its right to collective self-defense.
Former Japan Ground Self-Defense Force general Kiyofumi Ogawa said in a recent speech that the remark has been interpreted as meaning Japan could intervene in the early stages of a Taiwan Strait conflict, undermining China’s previous assumptions for military action against Taiwan and compelling it to revise its plans.
Ogawa, a former commander of the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force’s Western Army who is now a researcher at a Japanese think tank, said China’s military operations against Taiwan could broadly be divided into three phases.
The first phase would involve peacetime operations, with Beijing using cognitive warfare to create public panic while massing forces under the guise of military drills and surrounding Taiwan with warships to deter foreign intervention and impose a blockade.
The second phase would see exercises transition into actual combat, with missile strikes targeting Taiwan’s military facilities and cyberwarfare aimed at crippling command systems.
The third phase would involve a full-scale amphibious landing after China had secured air and naval superiority, he said.
During a House of Representatives Budget Committee session in November last year, Takaichi was asked what circumstances would be considered a “survival-threatening situation” if the Taiwan Strait were blockaded.
She said that if Taiwan were attacked militarily and warships were used to impose a maritime blockade alongside other measures, it could constitute such a scenario and justify the use of force.
Ogawa said the key to China’s strategy is securing a quick victory before outside powers such as the US and Japan can intervene.
However, Takaichi’s remarks effectively moved the threshold for a “survival-threatening situation” forward to the first-stage blockade scenario.
That would be a major blow to China, as its original plans were based on avoiding foreign intervention before the third phase, he said.
Under the new interpretation, it could face intervention from Japan and the US from the outset.
Military operational planning is typically based on assumptions about how a conflict would unfold, Ogawa said.
Once those assumptions change, troop deployments and operational plans must also be revised, he said.
If foreign intervention is now expected earlier, China would have to reassess the overall pace of an invasion and the allocation of forces, he said, adding that this is why Takaichi’s remarks had major strategic significance and triggered a strong backlash from China.
Ogawa added that under general military principles, an attacking force typically needs at least three times the strength of the defender to break through defenses effectively.
Based on the Taiwanese army’s strength of about 100,000 troops, China would need to mobilize at least 300,000 soldiers for an amphibious assault, while also bearing enormous transportation and logistical burdens, increasing the difficulty of such an operation, he said.
Taiwan, by contrast, has adopted a strategy of protracted warfare and in-depth defense, using coastal and layered defensive systems to buy time while awaiting outside support, creating a sharp contrast with China’s concept of a swift victory.
Even if China were to seize Taiwan, it would still face follow-up pressure from Japan, the Philippines and US forces, and would need to deploy additional resources toward Okinawa and the Philippines, potentially widening the conflict further, Ogawa said.
Overall, it would be highly difficult for China to take Taiwan easily, he said.