For 23 million Taiwanese, the most consequential diplomatic meeting of 2026 may be one to which they are not invited.
When U.S. President Donald Trump travels to Beijing next month, his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping has made clear that Taiwan will sit at the top of his agenda, a stark departure from their South Korea meeting last year, where he deliberately set the issue aside.
“Regarding Taiwan, the logic is simple: if the U.S. does not want to fight a major war with China over Taiwan, it should not support Taiwan independence,” said Wu Xinbo, dean of Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies, who serves on the policy advisory board of China’s foreign ministry.
“Trump has no interest in going to war with China. To avoid a major conflict that involves the U.S., he should make it clear that he won’t support independence or take actions that encourage a separatist political agenda.”
China’s foreign ministry said in a statement that Taiwan isChina’s “core of core interests” and the “basis of the political basis of China-U.S. relations”.
“‘Taiwan independence’ and peace in the Taiwan Strait are as incompatible as fire and water,” it added, saying China and the U.S. remain in communication about Trump’s trip.
The U.S. State Department did not respond to requests for comment.
The U.S. follows a “one China policy” by which it officially takes no position on Taiwan’s sovereignty and only acknowledges, but does not accept, China’s position, which claims the island as its own. The U.S. says it “does not support” Taiwan’s independence but will help it maintain self-defence.
Semiconductor powerhouse Taiwan sits at the heart of the military balance in the western Pacific, so even a nuanced change in U.S. wording could affect Beijing’s assessment of American resolve to continue its support to the island, experts say. It would unsettle Taipei, and raise fresh questions about Washington’s security commitments in Asia.
Trump administration officials have repeatedly said there has been no change on Taiwan policy, and have routinely condemned China for its pressure against the island.
Privately, they stress that Trump has approved considerably more in weapons sales to Taiwan in just over a year in his second term than his predecessor Joe Biden did throughout his presidency.
CHINA REQUESTED CHANGE IN U.S. LANGUAGE ON TAIWAN
At a summit with Biden in 2024, Xi asked him to change U.S. language on Taiwan to “we oppose Taiwan independence,” from the current version.
The U.S. has declined to make the change.
People involved in the preparations for Trump’s trip say privately that China has been constantly sending similar signals at a working level ahead of the summit, but declined to discuss the details, citing confidentiality of the talks.
Officials in Taiwan, whose government rejects Beijing’s sovereignty claim, are on high alert.