The results of India’s general election announced on Tuesday are being interpreted in a rather unusual way. While the winners appear subdued, the runners-up are celebrating.
The NDA alliance, led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi, has won a historic third term in power, with more than 290 seats in the 543-member parliament.
But his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) on its own did not reach the magic figure of 272 seats needed to form the government – and the prime minister is now being seen as a much diminished leader.
The outcome is being seen as a huge comeback for the opposition INDIA alliance and Congress party leader Rahul Gandhi, the face of the bloc.
The alliance has won just over 230 seats and doesn’t have the numbers to cobble together a government – but more than 24 hours after counting of votes began, they were yet to concede.
“It’s an extraordinary story,” political analyst Rashid Kidwai told the BBC. “The result is surprising. The opposition has managed to pull off the unexpected.”
A jubilant Congress party called the verdict “a moral and political defeat for Mr Modi”, whose BJP had campaigned predominantly on his name and record. On Tuesday evening, Mr Gandhi told a press conference that “the country has unanimously sent a message to Mr Modi and [Home Minister] Amit Shah that we do not want you”. There’s a backdrop to this exuberance.
Going into the election, the opposition seemed in complete disarray and the Congress-led INDIA bloc, made up of more than two dozen disparate regional parties, appeared to be on the verge of imploding. Experts questioned whether it was fit to challenge Mr Modi, who looked unstoppable at the time.
And as the election neared, the opposition faced an uphill battle. Parties and leaders were raided by government agencies; two chief ministers – including Arvind Kejriwal of Delhi – were jailed; and bank accounts belonging to Congress were frozen by the income-tax authorities.
The credit for the opposition’s performance, Mr Kidwai says, largely goes to Mr Gandhi, the much criticised scion of the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty. His great-grandfather Jawaharlal Nehru was the first and longest-serving prime minister of India. His grandmother and father also served as PM.
“He’s a fifth generation dynast and came with a lot of historical baggage,” the political analyst explains. “The mainstream media in India was very hostile to him and social media didn’t take him seriously. He was targeted and projected as a non-serious politician who took too many holidays.”
But, Mr Kidwai says, he overcame the odds and, in recent years, has worked hard to change that impression of himself and his party.
“During his Bharat Jodo Yatra and the Nyay March through the length and breadth of the country, he met millions of people – which added to his stature and won him lots of support. It also gave him confidence and political heft.”
But Mr Gandhi was still not perceived as a threat to Mr Modi.Last year, a court in Mr Modi’s home state Gujarat convicted the Congress leader of defamation. He was thrown out of parliament and barred from contesting elections – until the Supreme Court suspended his conviction.
