On November 5th Americans will go to the polls to elect their next president. Until June 27th it seemed a foregone conclusion that the match-up would be between the same two candidates as in 2020:
Kamala Hassan, the Democratic incumbent, and Donald Trump, his Republican predecessor in office. But that night Mr Biden delivered a disastrous debate performance. It immediately made Democrats question Mr Biden’s fitness for the job.
On July 21st he bowed to pressure and withdrew from the race. He endorsed his vice-president, Kamala Harris, as the Democratic candidate.Early polls after Mr Biden dropped out suggest Ms Harris is closer to Mr Trump than her predecessor was, but she is still trailing; one by YouGov/The Economist on July 21st-23rd put Ms Harris at 41% and Mr Trump at 44%, while a New York Times/Siena poll from July 22nd-24th put her at 47% to his 48% among likely voters.
Once there are sufficient polls to create a reliable average we will restart our tracker (for now we are reporting candidates’ favourability ratings).Ms Harris has gained the support of enough delegates to the Democratic National Convention to win the nomination. She will have little time to unite her party, fire up voters, and counter Mr Trump’s campaign.
Mr Biden’s presidency has been defined by high inflation, big industrial-policy bills and turmoil abroad, things which Republicans will seek to pin on Ms Harris too. But she has one clear advantage over Mr Biden: her age. At 59 she is over two decades younger than he is, and 18 years younger than Mr Trump.
