Vice President Kamala Harris’ catapult to the top of the ticket has given Florida Democrats a rush of adrenaline.
The state party has had a near-unabated losing streak since former President Barack Obama won the state in 2012. Time and again, leading Democrats heralded demographic change or rising political stars as a precursor to victory — only to come up short as the nation’s biggest battleground turned from purple to red.
Now Harris’ entry in the presidential race has recharged enthusiasm among rank-and-file Democrats from Miami to Tallahassee. No, they admit, Harris probably won’t win the state; Florida is not among the “pathways to victory” for the campaign, and no Democratic (or Republican) group has invested any serious money on advertising here.
Yet high engagement could help them avoid a repeat of the disaster of the midterms — when Democratic turnout plunged as Gov. Ron DeSantis and other Republicans romped to huge victories — and give the party a chance to start the recovery process in a state where there has not been a Democratic governor since 1999, they say.
“People were in the doldrums and felt like they were headed to a likely defeat,” said Ryan Ray, the Democratic Party chair for Leon County, a small Democratic island in ruby-red North Florida. “She makes Democratic base voters of all stripes more enthusiastic than we were before.”
What happens in Florida over the next three-plus months will test Republicans’ hold on a state of more than 23 million people, which has become a reliable source of electoral votes for former President Donald Trump and the GOP. Democrats were already hoping to see a turnout boost from a pair of November ballot measures that would overturn the state’s ban on abortion after six weeks and legalize marijuana for adults.
Still, some still fear Harris excitement will give way to another round of shattered expectations, moving Florida even further from its place as a swing state that decided the presidency in 2000.
While the Harris campaign and some top Democrats insist the vice president will put Florida back in reach, others continue to lower expectations.
“Do I believe Kamala Harris is going to win Florida? No, probably not,” Reggie Cardozo, a veteran Florida political operative who served as deputy state director for Hillary Clinton. “Do I believe that Kamala Harris gives us a better shot of closing that gap than maybe Joe Biden did? Absolutely. … So for me it’s a matter of: Does the vice president lose Florida by 5 points or does she lose it by 12 points?”
A victory for Democrats would likely come not via Harris winning the state or Democrats upsetting Sen. Rick Scott in November. Instead, it would look like Democrats slowly clawing their way back into political relevance, at least having a chance to break Republican legislative supermajorities — which, under the control of DeSantis, have driven the state to the right.
Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, a South Florida Democrat and former chair of the Democratic National Committee, said “Harris knows Florida” and “her super-charged candidacy expands our Democratic map especially with younger, minority and women voters who are just now engaging in the race.”
“My message is: Don’t sleep on Florida, because Kamala’s candidacy just woke a sleeping giant,” Wasserman Schultz said.
The Harris campaign, however, continues to send mixed signals about how serious it is about Florida. Harris has visited Florida — which has a diverse blend of white, Hispanic and Black voters — roughly a dozen times as vice president to put the state GOP on notice over abortion rights, gun violence and Black history curriculum.
But in a memo sent out early Wednesday, Jen O’Malley Dillon, chair of the Harris for President campaign, listed several states cited as “pathways to victory.” Florida wasn’t on that list.
The campaign said it has seen a burst of energy in Florida following Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race and endorse Harris. The organization said it had signed up nearly 6,000 new volunteers in the state since the day Biden exited the race and this weekend is holding mobilization events across the state. It has more than 30 hired campaign staffers with plans to open additional offices in the next few weeks. The Florida Democratic Party also announced a slew of new hires on Thursday.
