The 2024 US presidential election will set the course for relations with China for the next four years, with profound implications for global trade, diplomacy, and business exchange. While Trump and Biden share similar visions for their engagement with China, important distinctions between their policies could send bilateral relations and global trade onto very different trajectories. We discuss the US election’s impact on China relations in the event of a Trump or Biden win and look at the potential implications for businesses in China.
American voters head to the polls on November 5, 2024, to elect their next president, facing a consequential choice that could shape the direction of the nation for the next four years.
At this pivotal moment, we have unique insight into the potential trajectory for US-China relations in 2025, as the candidate’s prior terms provide a blueprint for the kinds of policies and tactics they would adopt.
Broadly, the two candidates have similar visions for their China policies. Both Trump and Biden share a resolute stance on addressing trade imbalances and national security concerns, underscoring the bipartisan consensus on adopting a hardline approach to engagement with China.
Nonetheless, from trade policies to technology strategies, the campaign agendas of Trump and Biden offer slightly diverging paths, each carrying profound implications for the future of US-China relations.
In this article, we look at the key differences and similarities between Trump’s and Biden’s China agendas to discuss the possible implications of a second term for either candidate, as well as the impact the outcome could have on business and trade interests.
Trade is arguably the most critical issue in the US’s China policy agenda, with anti-China positions garnering bipartisan support. Both sides of the political aisle agree on the importance of reducing the trade deficit with China and decreasing reliance on Chinese imports. This consensus has led to the implementation of trade barriers during both the Trump and Biden administrations.
President Trump initiated a trade war with China in 2018, imposing tariffs of up to 25 percent on a range of Chinese goods under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974. President Biden has not only maintained these tariffs but also increased or introduced new duties on strategically important goods.
Despite their shared stance on the necessity of reducing trade with China, the Trump and Biden agendas differ in their strategy for achieving bipartisan goals.
Trump’s China trade agenda
Trump’s agenda adopts a considerably broader, blanket approach to trade barriers compared to Biden’s more targeted strategy. The central aim of his trade strategy is to bring back manufacturing jobs to the US that have been lost to overseas competitors – particularly China.
In his 2024 campaign materials, Trump has proposed universal baseline tariffs on most imported foreign goods, as well as a mechanism to gradually increase tariffs on countries that have been deemed to devalue their currency or engage in other unfair trading practices.
While this policy does not explicitly target China, universal baseline taxes would be a major hit to Chinese exporters – particularly those selling consumer goods – as the US is an important export market for China. It would also considerably increase costs for American consumers and businesses. Meanwhile, the Trump administration has previously labeled China a currency manipulator, which means it is likely to become the target of the proposed counter-currency manipulation mechanism.
Trump has also pledged to “end reliance on China” by adopting a range of trade barriers, of which the most extreme is revoking China’s most-favored national (MFN) status. This proposal has received support from bipartisan bodies such as the US House Select Committee on the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).
