The 2024 presidential election continues to be the closest of the century. In fact, it is the closest race for the White House in the past 60 years.
Polling since the September 10 debate between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris shows that while the vice president seems to have opened up a slight national edge over her Republican rival, their race remains well within the margin of error and too close to call. This is especially the case when looking at the Electoral College.
On average, according to the latest CNN Poll of Polls, Harris is ahead by 3 points.
You’d have to go back to the 1960 campaign to find a race in which the major-party nominees were always within 5 points of each other in an average of the national polling. Every presidential year since then has had at least three weeks when one candidate was up by 5 points or more.
But perhaps the more important reason this election is too close to call is that this isn’t a national election. Instead, it is a race to 270 electoral votes through the Electoral College.
Indeed, neither Harris nor Trump has a big leg up when you look at the state-level data. Per CNN’s race ratings, Harris starts at 225 electoral votes to Trump’s 219. Seven states and the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s 2nd Congressional District remain up for grabs.
The bottom line is that this year’s presidential race is as close as it could be. One tiny shift in either direction could make all the difference in the world.
