The “blue wall” states of Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania have paved the path to the White House for the last two Democratic presidents.
But with just 14 days until the Nov. 5 election, there are concerns within Kamala Harris’ campaign about whether the vice president can claim all three states.
Recent discussions have centered on the possibility of an anomaly happening this year with just part of the blue wall breaking its way. The conversations have focused on whether Michigan or Wisconsin “fall” to former President Donald Trump while the two other states go blue, according to three sources with knowledge of the campaign’s strategy.
Losing Wisconsin or Michigan would mean that even if Harris secures Pennsylvania — where both Harris and Trump have spent the most time and resources — she would not reach the necessary 270 electoral votes to win the White House without winning another battleground state or possibly two.
“There has been a thought that maybe Michigan or Wisconsin will fall off,” said a senior Harris campaign official, who stressed that the bigger concern is over Michigan. Two other people with knowledge of campaign strategy — who, like others in this article, were granted anonymity to speak candidly — also underscored deep concern about Michigan. Those people still believe that all the states are close and that there are alternative routes to victory.
A Harris campaign spokesperson pushed back against the notion about deep concerns over Michigan, pointing to recent public polling. A Detroit News poll conducted Oct. 1-4 found Harris, who was campaigning in Michigan on Monday, holding a slight lead in the state, as did a Washington Post poll on Monday.
“We absolutely are competing to win Michigan,” Harris campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said, noting Harris’ presence there this week. “We think we will win Michigan.”
But also potentially troubling for Democrats: What Harris’ campaign had thought was one of its best insurance possibilities may also be in peril. Just a few weeks ago, several Harris advisers in interviews pointed to the combination of electoral votes from North Carolina and Nevada as a strong alternative path for Harris should Trump win Pennsylvania and claim its 19 electoral votes.
While North Carolina is still in the campaign’s sights and Democrats maintain strong organization and leadership there, the Harris team is far less bullish about victory, four people with knowledge of the dynamics said.
“Of all of the seven [states], that one seems to be a little bit slipping away,” the Harris campaign official said of North Carolina.
Hurricane Helene’s destruction — and the rampant disinformation that followed it — are factors that could weigh against Harris in North Carolina, these people said. One of the sources also pointed to a less competitive race for governor as a potential factor. A series of scandals upended Republican candidate Mark Robinson’s campaign, putting him far behind Democrat Josh Stein in polling; those developments have meant less local investment and intensity on the ground, that person said.
After President Joe Biden stepped aside from seeking the nomination and endorsed Harris on July 21, Democrats’ map expanded to include the six battleground states that Biden won in 2020 — the three blue wall states, Arizona, Nevada and Georgia — plus North Carolina. While the campaign had built infrastructure in those states under Biden, his stubbornly low ratings on the economy and immigration really kept only the three blue wall states in play. That changed when Harris entered the race. Suddenly, enthusiasm, fundraising and volunteer interest soared, and the positive polling followed.
But as the Nov. 5 election has neared, Harris and Trump have been deadlocked in a margin-of-error contest.
The Harris campaign has said all along that it has run a seven-state battleground strategy, sinking its vast resources into organization, building infrastructure in rural areas and outpacing Republicans in ad spending.
“I don’t see a blue wall path or a Sun Belt path or a Southern path. I see seven states that are as close as it gets that will all be decided by margins on the ground,” Harris battleground state director Dan Kanninen said in a recent interview. “And so we built an operation that can win close races on the ground, expecting that. And truthfully, one of the seven has as good a chance as any other to be the tipping-point state.”
Since Harris’ entry, the campaign has looked at the blue wall states as central to her election path, but it has also considered states like Nevada as essential in bulking up a win even if Democrats uphold the blue wall, in case legal challenges arise, according to three campaign officials.
