Vice President Kamala Harris has regained a slight lead among likely voters nationally in the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll, albeit with the race close enough to leave the outcome of the 2024 presidential election to the uncertainties of the Electoral College.
Turnout is key. Just 2 percentage points divide Harris and Donald Trump among all registered voters, 49-47%. This goes to a slight Harris advantage among likely voters, 51-47%, with some pro-Harris groups showing a bit more propensity to vote.
Compared with earlier this month, Harris has regained a more customary Democratic advantage among Hispanic people and widened her advantage among suburban women, while remaining strong in core groups including Black people. Trump pushes back in rural areas and among non-college white men, and runs competitively among younger men.
