Only a third of Senate seats are up for grabs every two years — and Democrats are on defense as they try to maintain their slim majority.
Of the 34 seats for which there is an election this year, Democrats are defending 20 and Republicans are defending 13. Two of those Democratic seats, in West Virginia and Montana, are likely to be won by Republicans, according to the Senate race ratings. Another one, in Ohio, is rated as a toss-up.
Democrats hope they can pick up an unexpected win in either Texas or Florida, but Republicans are on pace to have a slim majority in the Senate next year. Assuming Republicans hold all of the seats they currently hold, they can control the chamber if they flip one Democratic seat and win the White House (the vice president breaks ties in the Senate) or win two seats regardless of the outcome of the presidential race.
No matter who has control of the Senate, neither party is expected to have a supermajority. That’s important because senators generally abide by a custom of respecting the filibuster. It usually requires 60 votes to enact major pieces of legislation, although both Republicans and Democrats have found ways around that in recent years.
Republicans found a way to enact tax cuts under former President Donald Trump without 60 votes. Democrats did the same thing with their Inflation Reduction Act, which, among other things, aims to transition the US to a greener economy.
