While most of the nation’s attention is focused on the top of the ticket, Democrats and Republicans are engaged in an equally fierce battle for control of key state legislatures, including several in presidential swing states.
In addition to the Arizona Legislature, Democrats are hoping to flip the New Hampshire Legislature, make inroads in the Wisconsin House and chip away at Republican supermajorities, including those in the North Carolina and Kansas legislatures and the Wisconsin Senate.
Republicans, meanwhile, are focused on protecting those majorities, as well as targeting narrow Democratic majorities in the state Houses in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Minnesota.
Chaz Nuttycombe, the director of cnalysis.com, which forecasts state legislative races, said Democrats are likely to gain seats nationally this year due to new, more competitive district lines. But on a map full of tight races, particularly in swing states, there’s a chance Republicans could exceed expectations.
“There’s plenty of room for upset, for Republicans to defy those odds and somehow — despite redistricting and 2024 being a bluer environment, most likely, than 2022 … gain seats in state legislatures this year,” he said.
For Democrats, this cycle is part of a yearslong campaign to gain back power at the state level after the 2010 election cycle, when Republicans flipped control of 22 state chambers and gained the upper hand in redistricting.
