The relocation of American marines from Okinawa to Guam may be in part a move to better protect both the US territory and Taiwan in the event of conflict with the People’s Liberation Army, analysts have said.
While no unit headquarters will be moving at this stage, the United States is planning to scale back its presence on Okinawa in phases to reduce the burden on the Japanese island.
Okinawa is the largest island in the Ryukyu chain and hosts more than half of all US service personnel stationed in Japan despite accounting for less than 1 per cent of the country’s land mass.
The move has been nearly two decades in the pipeline and the heavy US military presence on Okinawa has angered many locals because of its social and environmental impact, and a string of serious crimes, including murder and rape, committed by US service personnel.
However, some observers believe that mainland China’s growing military capabilities – especially its hypersonic missile arsenal – is another reason to disperse US forces across the wider Pacific, with one arguing that strengthening its forces in Guam would help it come to Taiwan’s defence in the event of conflict.
According to a joint statement from the US Marine Corps and Japanese defence ministry issued on Saturday, around 100 logistics support troops from III Marine Expeditionary Force have started moving from Okinawa to Guam.
It said: “Ultimately, the Marine Corps will maintain a forward presence in the Indo-Pacific through a combination of stationing and rotating Marines in Japan, Guam and Hawaii.”
The US first agreed to transfer troops out of Japan in 2005, and in 2012 said it would move about 9,000 marines – out of a total of 19,000 stationed in Okinawa – out of Japan. Around 4,000 of these troops will eventually relocate to Guam, although there is no timetable for the move.
Tokyo has agreed to provide up to US$2.8 billion to build new military facilities on Guam and this infrastructure is likely to be used for joint US-Japan training exercises, the statement added.
Okinawa forms part of the first island chain – which runs from the main Japanese archipelago, through Taiwan and the Philippines and down to the Malay Peninsula – and the string of US military facilities there could help deny the People’s Liberation Army access to the western Pacific.
Guam, on the other hand, is part of the second island chain further to the West and US forces stationed there could be called on to support any military action in the Taiwan Strait.
Song Zhongping, a former PLA instructor, said US bases in Japan have become “extremely insecure” as China improves its ability to strike targets.
“The threat doesn’t come only from Chinese missiles but also from Russian missiles. This has created a significant sense of insecurity for the US,” he said.
He said this means “the US has been forced to consider pulling back its military forces and is now building a new first island chain, which includes Guam and the surrounding islands, even Australia”.
A report published by the Stimson Centre, a US think tank, last week suggested that the US Air Force’s extended deterrence commitment is at risk because China could neutralise bases in Japan, Guam, and other Pacific locations in the first days or weeks of a war.
A Pentagon report published on Thursday also said Chinese hypersonic missile technologies have “greatly advanced during the past 20 years” and its DF-17 medium-range ballistic missiles could be “used to strike foreign military bases and fleets in the western Pacific”.
