During a trip to Taiwan last year, US Congressman Mike Waltz said that the US needed to embrace “strategic clarity” and spell out to China that an invasion of the country would be met with a strong US response.
Now that he is US president-elect Donald Trump’s incoming national security adviser, Waltz is beginning to see the value in ambiguity.
After more than 24 years in the US military, Waltz built his reputation in Washington as a China hawk, working on a US House of Representatives task force to coordinate policy toward Beijing.
He introduced bills to prevent federal retirement funds from being invested in China’s military, decrease US dependence on critical minerals from China and make the protection of Taiwan a specific goal for the US military.
In an interview with Bloomberg News last year, Waltz, 50, said that the biggest deterrent for Chinese President Xi Jinping (習近平) would be for the US and its allies to clearly state that they would come to the nation’s aid.
“I really think increasingly we need to move from strategic ambiguity to strategic clarity,” Waltz said in an interview in April last year in Seoul.
“If we don’t come to the aid of Taiwan, what does that then mean to Japan, South Korea and the Philippines? It means they start questioning their alliance with us and our commitment to them — and therefore, what I think it ultimately will mean is a nuclear Japan and a nuclear South Korea, because they will have to take matters into their own hands,” he said.
There is just one problem. Waltz’s new boss swept back to the White House as voters embraced his America First-branded approach to foreign policy, prioritizing domestic manufacturing and avoiding foreign entanglements.
That is bad news for Taiwan, which has long been the biggest flashpoint between the world’s two superpowers, and home to massive semiconductor manufacturing facilities that Trump and Democrats alike are eager to return to US shores.
Now, Waltz faces the unenviable task of reconciling his views with that of his boss — under the watchful eye of an Indo-Pacific region that has been shaken in recent years, as Beijing seeks to project its military might and test the US’ resolve with increased drills around Taiwan.
A spokesperson for Waltz in a statement said that “President Trump will keep all options on the table in the Indo-Pacific and Representative Waltz will carry out the policies that are in line with the president’s agenda.”
That comment is a notable departure from Waltz’s remarks during the congressional delegation trip to Taiwan, South Korea and Japan last year, when he cited the importance of arming Taiwan more rapidly and selling the US people on the significance of defending it.
“I feel like we’re in a race against time,” he told Bloomberg last year. “The intelligence community is blinking red, yet the bureaucracy within our national security community is kind of plodding along.”
Implicit in the tonal shift is an acknowledgment that Trump — who has described Taiwan as “the apple of Xi’s eye” — largely sees Taiwan as a mooch that stole a key industry while relying on the US for security.
“They did take about 100 percent of our chip business,” Trump said in an interview in June with Bloomberg. “Taiwan should pay us for defense. You know, we’re no different than an insurance company. Taiwan doesn’t give us anything.”
Trump’s comments spurred a frenzy in Taipei, where officials sought to clarify their intentions and the administration of President William Lai (賴清德) has since discussed ways to appease the incoming US president through weapons and energy purchases they plan to announce when Trump takes office, people familiar with the matter said.
However, Waltz’s tight-rope act has already begun.
Last week, he met with Taiwanese officials at an event in Washington.
People familiar with the conversation said that it was an informal gathering that was not organized through the transition and that they did not have an in-depth policy discussion.
Still, one person familiar with the conversation expressed confidence that Waltz would maintain his pro-Taiwan stance and that Washington and Taipei would have open channels of dialogue on security cooperation.
Central to the brewing policy debate is whether to alter the so-called “one China” policy and the Taiwan Relations Act.
US President Joe Biden shook that equilibrium when he said more than once he would defend Taiwan militarily if China invaded.
Trump told the Wall Street Journal editorial board in October that he would handle the issue by telling Xi he would impose 150 to 200 percent tariffs on China if he went “into Taiwan.”
When asked if he would use military force against a blockade of Taiwan, he answered: “I wouldn’t have to, because he respects me and he knows I’m f— crazy.”
A person familiar with Waltz’s current thinking said he now believes that it likely would not even come to a military confrontation because the US and China would hash it out through economic competition.
Zack Cooper, a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, said the tension boils down to Trump prizing unpredictability because it can increase leverage, while the US Congress — particularly Republicans — have traditionally favored predictability with Taiwan.
“Incoming administration officials coming from the Congress will have to adjudicate between president-elect Trump’s preference for unpredictability and their past statements favoring clear support for Taiwan,” he added.
