With about five months to go until the votes are counted, the presidential election is close. Just as it has been for many months.
In our first reassessment of the electoral landscape since early January, we are changing the ratings for a few states in the presidential race, but only for a handful of states on the fringes of the competitive battlefield.
The presidential race is still poised to be decided by the six states we rate as Toss-ups: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, plus the Omaha-based 2nd congressional district of Nebraska, which, under state law, has its own electoral vote.
Adding together the states leaning heavily or modestly to their party, the Republicans have 235 electoral votes, while the equivalent number for Democrats is 225. Since 270 electoral votes is the magic number to win the presidential race, the remainder – 78 electoral votes in the Toss-up category – will likely decide the election.
