Artificial intelligence is poised to significantly transform the Indo-Pacific maritime security landscape. It offers unprecedented situational awareness, decision-making speed and operational flexibility. But without clear rules, shared norms and mechanisms for risk reduction, AI could act as a destabilising force—particularly in contested waters where tensions are already high.
In the Indo-Pacific, larger countries are adopting AI to monitor and respond to threats. But the unclear nature of AI decisions risks escalation in contested spaces. Additionally, smaller states without the technological capacity risk being left behind. Furthermore, the lack of clear legal guidelines means there is no agreement on responsible use, risking further escalation.
Indo-Pacific partners must work together to develop standards of AI use in naval operations to avoid escalation and conflict in the region.
At the operational level, AI offers substantial enhancements in the ability to monitor, track and interpret activities across oceanic spaces. AI-powered systems can rapidly analyse satellite imagery, sonar data and automatic identification system signals to identify naval deployments, ships surreptitiously engaged in illicit activities, or civilian vessels used for strategic deception. These capabilities could bolster maritime law enforcement, countering illegal fishing, smuggling or grey-zone coercion. They could also support real-time monitoring of strategic chokepoints such as the Strait of Malacca, the Taiwan Strait or the South China Sea.
China is committed to integrating AI into its maritime strategy. Its navy and coast guard are using AI to enhance unmanned surface and underwater vessel operations, automate maritime surveillance across disputed waters and support rapid data fusion in joint maritime command centres. Beijing’s use of AI to combine satellite and oceanographic data allows it to monitor adversaries and assert maritime claims with greater confidence and persistence. This increases regional navies’ concerns about China’s ability to dominate the decision-making cycle in contested waters.
The United States, Australia, Japan, South Korea and India are responding with their own AI-enabled initiatives. The US Navy’s Project Overmatch and Australia’s Ghost Shark undersea drone project are examples of efforts to integrate AI into distributed maritime operations, autonomous platforms and decision-support tools. AI-driven swarming technology, cooperative autonomous undersea systems and real-time target classification are likely to become central to allied force postures across the Indo-Pacific. Additionally, AI-powered centres for combining data, such as India’s Information Fusion Centre—Indian Ocean Region, are being used to coordinate multinational responses to maritime threats in real time.
However, these technological advancements are not without risks. Integration of AI into maritime systems increase the possibility of escalation through automation and miscalculation. In contested zones, such as the South China Sea, naval and paramilitary forces from multiple countries already operate in close proximity. Autonomous vessels or decision-support algorithms in such places could misinterpret intent or escalate incidents due to flawed pattern recognition, bias in data sets, or overly aggressive operational parameters. The lack of transparency into the decision-making processes of AI systems—particularly those based on deep learning—may complicate efforts to attribute actions, assign responsibility, or de-escalate tensions once a confrontation begins.
The proliferation of AI in the maritime sphere poses challenges for smaller states with limited technological capacity. Southeast Asian nations such as Indonesia, the Philippines and Vietnam may find themselves at a disadvantage as larger powers deploy AI-enhanced naval assets that can dominate surveillance, disrupt communications, or project force with fewer personnel and faster reaction times. Without regional frameworks to ensure transparency, interoperability, or norms of conduct, the Indo-Pacific could devolve into a tiered security environment where technological inequality exacerbates strategic asymmetry.
Moreover, the lack of international regulation on the use of AI in naval systems creates a dangerous legal vacuum. Key questions remain unanswered: what constitutes appropriate human control over AI-enabled maritime systems? How should accountability be assigned for incidents involving autonomous vessels? Can existing rules on the use of force at sea be adapted to AI-enhanced environments?
Without coordinated answers, states may pursue national strategies that prioritise speed and advantage over safety and stability.
To mitigate these risks, regional and extra-regional powers must consider developing a set of AI-focused maritime confidence-building measures. These could include pre-notification of autonomous vessel deployments, joint AI stress-testing exercises to assess the reliability and behaviour of unmanned systems in shared waters and regional agreements on minimum levels of human oversight. Multilateral forums, including the ASEAN Defence Ministers’ Meeting-Plus, the Indian Ocean Rim Association, and even informal groupings such as the Quad, could serve as platforms for these discussions.
The future of maritime security in the Indo-Pacific will not only be shaped by the size of navies or the reach of fleets but increasingly by the logic—and the limits—of the algorithms guiding them.
