Former President Donald Trump’s conviction in Manhattan dented his support among independents, according to a new poll—a small, but potentially significant impact in a race between Trump and President Joe Biden that remains marginally close.
Thirty-two percent of independents said they’re less likely to support Trump after he was convicted in Manhattan last month on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records, according to a Politico/Ipsos poll released Monday, that found 33% of voters overall said they’re less likely to support Trump, including 9% of Republicans.
Trump is up 0.8 points in a head-to-head matchup with Biden, according to Real Clear Politics’ national poll tracker, as some surveys show signs his lead is slipping in the wake of the verdict, including Morning Consult’s weekly survey released June 10 that showed Biden up by one, his first lead in the weekly tracking poll in a month.
A June Times/Siena survey also found Trump’s lead has declined one point and Biden’s has increased one point among the same group of 2,000 voters polled in April and May, before Trump was convicted last month by a Manhattan jury, though Trump still leads Biden 47% to 46%, the survey found.
Polls consistently show the conviction is a low priority for voters in making their decisions about who to cast their ballots for in November—the Politico/Ipsos poll found 53% said it’s not important to their voting decision, while 61% of respondents in a Reuters/Ipsos poll released Thursday said it won’t impact their vote.
A CBS/YouGov poll released June 9 also found the majority, 55%, of likely voters said Trump’s conviction isn’t a factor in their voting decisions, and six other issues, including the economy, crime and border, outrank the conviction by double digit margins in terms of importance to voters.
About half of Americans, 48%, said they agree with a Manhattan jury’s decision last month to convict Trump, according to an AP-NORC poll released June 12, including 32% of independents and 15% of Republicans, while 29% of all respondents disapprove and 21% neither approve nor disapprove.
