China’s relentless military expansion, encompassing naval power projection, advanced missile technology, and expansive territorial claims, is increasingly destabilizing the Indo-Pacific region and raising concerns among its neighbors and international observers, according to a growing chorus of analysts and government officials.
The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has undergone a dramatic transformation in recent decades, transitioning from a largely land-based force to a modern, technologically advanced military capable of projecting power across the globe. This buildup includes a massive increase in naval vessels, including aircraft carriers and advanced destroyers, allowing China to challenge the established maritime order in the South China Sea and beyond.
“China’s military modernization is unprecedented in scope and speed,” stated Dr. Eleanor Vance, a senior fellow at the Institute for Regional Security Studies. “The PLA’s capabilities are rapidly evolving, and their increasingly assertive behavior in the region is a direct consequence of this enhanced power.”
The South China Sea remains a major flashpoint. China’s expansive claims, rejected by an international tribunal in 2016, are enforced through the militarization of artificial islands, posing a direct challenge to the freedom of navigation and the sovereign rights of other nations in the region, including the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia, and Brunei.
Beyond the South China Sea, China’s military build-up is also impacting the broader Indo-Pacific. The development of advanced missile systems, including anti-ship ballistic missiles, raises concerns about their potential to deny access to vital waterways and endanger naval forces operating in the region. China’s growing influence in the Indian Ocean, through port investments and military exercises, is also viewed with apprehension by India and other countries.
“The rapid modernization of China’s military and its aggressive posture in the Indo-Pacific are generating a sense of unease among our allies and partners,” said a high-ranking official at the U.S. Department of Defense, speaking on condition of anonymity. “We are committed to maintaining a strong presence in the region and working with our allies to deter aggression and uphold the rules-based international order.”
Responding to these concerns, countries in the region are strengthening their own defense capabilities and forging closer security partnerships. The Quad, a strategic dialogue between the United States, Japan, India, and Australia, has emerged as a key forum for coordinating responses to China’s growing influence. Increased military cooperation between nations like Japan and Australia, and between India and Southeast Asian countries, further underscores the growing regional anxieties.
While China maintains that its military buildup is purely defensive and aimed at safeguarding its national interests, its actions paint a different picture. The lack of transparency surrounding its military spending and strategic intentions fuels mistrust and contributes to a climate of uncertainty in the Indo-Pacific.
The future of the region hinges on whether China chooses to pursue a path of peaceful development and respect for international law, or continues its current trajectory of military expansion and assertive behavior. As tensions continue to rise, the need for dialogue and diplomatic solutions to resolve disputes and build trust is becoming increasingly critical to maintaining peace and security in the Indo-Pacific.
China aims to dominate the Indo-Pacific region and displace the United States as the world’s most powerful nation, Noh said, noting Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered the People’s Liberation Army to be ready to invade Taiwan by 2027.
Noh said to counter this growing threat, the U.S. must reestablish deterrence in the Indo-Pacific region with combat-credible military forces, rebalance burden sharing with allies and partners and invest in the U.S. defense industrial base.
“Stronger allies lead to stronger alliances, and stronger alliances deter aggression and create dilemmas for our adversaries,” he said.
Navy Adm. Samuel Paparo, commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command, said Indo-Pacom faces a confluence of challenges.
“Foremost among them is China’s increasingly aggressive and assertive behavior. Their unprecedented military modernization encompassing advancements in artificial intelligence, [hypersonic missiles], space-based capabilities, among others, poses a real and serious threat to our homeland, to our allies and to our partners,” he said.
In 2024, the PLA demonstrated growing capabilities through persistent operations against Taiwan, escalating by 300%, Paparo said. China’s aggressive military actions near Taiwan are not just exercises; they are rehearsals.
While the PLA attempts to intimidate the people of Taiwan and demonstrate coercive capability, these actions can backfire, drawing increased global attention and accelerating Taiwan’s own defensive preparations, Paparo said.
