In late 2020 and early 2021, this reporter wrote several stories focusing on the election predictions advanced by Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University.
I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber.
Historian Allan Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner of nearly every U.S. presidential election over the past 40 years. This time, he’s betting on Kamala Harris. In an interview, the 77-year-old explains how he reached this conclusion.
Allan Lichtman has many talents and plenty of stamina. In his youth, he was a steeplechase champion. A former steeplechase champion, he later gained notoriety in the U.S. as a quiz show sensation, winning over $100,000 on «Tic-Tac-Dough.». Now 77, Lichtman still jogs daily, preparing to compete in the Senior Olympics, all while continuing his teaching career as a professor at Washington, D.C.’s American University, where he has been a fixture since 1973.
Lichtman’s true claim to fame, however, is his 13 «Keys to the White House.» These are factors that he says can make the difference between victory and defeat in presidential elections. His model considers factors like candidates’ charisma, the economy’s health, White House scandals, and the incumbent party’s legislative successes. Using this system, Lichtman has correctly predicted the winner in nine out of the last 10 presidential elections. Thanks to this track record, Lichtman has earned the moniker of a «Nostradamus» or «prophet» of the race to the White House. Recently, he shared his prediction for this year’s contest.
Mr. Lichtman, you are convinced that Kamala Harris will win the presidential election. However, current polling suggests a more uncertain outcome. With nearly two months to go before the election, what makes you so confident in your prediction?
My prediction ignores the polls. Polls are just snapshots in time, not reliable indicators of future outcomes. I focus on how American presidential elections actually work. The 13 keys measure the strength and track record of the party in the White House. There’s a clear-cut rule: if six or more keys turn against the incumbent party, it loses; if fewer do, it wins. This model has an unmatched track record, predicting every election since Ronald Reagan’s reelection in 1985. In fact, I made my prediction three years before that race, during one of the worst recessions since the Great Depression, when Reagan’s approval ratings were at rock bottom.
Critics say you wrongly predicted a victory for Al Gore against George W. Bush in 2000. But you maintain your forecast was accurate. Why do you believe that?
Bill Maher once asked me on his show why I got the 2000 election wrong. But I didn’t get it wrong – Florida did. My prediction was about the will of the voters, and by that measure, Gore should have won. In Florida, they discarded roughly every ninth or tenth vote cast by African Americans, while among white voters, only one in 50 votes was rejected. Had African American ballots been discarded at the same rate as white voters’, Gore would have won by tens of thousands of votes. Most of the discarded ballots were what’s called «overvotes.» These were African American voters who punched Gore’s name and then, to be extra sure, wrote it in as well. Florida threw out those ballots. An independent study confirmed this. So when I say I was right, that’s what I mean. But we could go back and forth on 2000 forever.
