Vice president Kamala Harris, the current leading candidate to replace Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee, is leading former president Donald Trump in three national polls.
Biden announced he would not be seeking reelection on Sunday and endorsed Harris as his successor. The decision came after he faced increasing political pressure to stand down, with fellow Democrats, donors and voters all raising concerns about his age and fitness after his poor presidential debate performance on June 27, and his subsequent diagnosis with COVID-19.
While Trump has consistently led both Harris and Biden in most national polls, in three polls this month, all conducted before Biden stepped down, Harris narrowly led Trump in a hypothetical head-to-head, with each of her leads falling within the margin of error.
The most recent national poll putting Harris in front was conducted by Marist for NPR and PBS News between July 9 and July 10 and surveyed 1,309 adults. Harris garnered 50 percent support compared to Trump’s 49 percent, with just 1 percent of respondents remaining undecided. This poll had a margin of error of +/- 3.3.
Marist is a reputable pollster according to aggregator FiveThirtyEight, which ranks the firm 6th on its list of 277 firms for its historical track record and transparent methodology, giving it a rating of 2.9 stars out of three.
The second most recent national poll with Harris leading was conducted by Ipsos for ABC News between July 5 and July 9. It presented a similar picture, with Harris leading Trump by 2 percentage points, receiving 42 percent of the vote to Trump’s 40 percent. The poll, which surveyed 2,431 adults, also revealed that 4 percent of respondents would vote for someone else, and 14 percent would not vote at all. The margin of error for this poll was +/- 2.1 percentage points.
Ipsos is also considered a reputable pollster. FiveThirtyEight ranks it 17th out of 277 firms, giving it a rating of 2.8 stars out of three.
