China is taking unprecedented steps to assert itself in the Pacific region. At the 2024 Pacific Islands Forum Leaders Meeting (PIFLM), one of the region’s most important diplomatic gatherings, China’s special envoy to the Pacific raised strong objections, leading to the removal of any mention of Taiwan in the final communique. Taiwan, an acknowledged Pacific developmental partner for over 30 years, was further sidelined when the Solomon Islands called for its exclusion from future events, a move many believe was directed by China.
With Beijing and Honiara strengthening ties, the Solomon Islands could further expand Chinese influence. One important case could be at the 2025 PIFLM, where the Solomon Islands can, as a host, limit Taiwan’s presence, increase China’s role, hinder the participation of Taiwan’s regional allies, and steer the conversation toward China’s interests.
China has been steadily expanding its influence in the Pacific region using its economic largesse, with particular success in the Solomon Islands. Between 2000 and 2021, China has committed 780 grants and 115 loans to Pacific Island nations, over half of which were committed after 2015. Its efforts prompted the Solomon Islands along with Kiribati to shift diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 2019, and Nauru to follow suit in 2024. Under the leadership of former Prime Minister Manasseh Sogavare, the current minister of finance, the Solomon Islands signed two security agreements with China in 2022 and 2023. The 2022 agreement marked China’s first bilateral security pact with a Pacific Island nation, and both deals have raised alarm bells in the West.
With Honiara set to host this year’s PIFLM, China is well-positioned to leverage its relations with the Solomon Islands to advance its own interests. As the host, the Solomon Islands can tighten procedural rules and cite logistical or diplomatic concerns that limit the presence of Taiwan’s officials at the 2025 PIFLM. By doing so, the Solomon Islands would reinforce Beijing’s “One China” principle and its goal to diplomatically isolate Taiwan.
The marginalization of Taiwan could undermine regional unity and set a precedent for other Pacific Island nations to follow suit to win China’s favor. In the broader international context, this would reinforce China’s strategic aim of eroding Taiwan’s international legitimacy, potentially leading to greater diplomatic pressure on Taiwan’s few remaining allies worldwide.
The Solomon Islands could also invite a larger delegation of Chinese officials to participate and enhance China’s presence. The hosting nation has significant discretion in shaping the guest and observer list. By welcoming a larger delegation of Chinese officials and representatives from Chinese businesses and civil society, the Solomon Islands could allow China to dominate the discussions through sheer numbers. This would amplify China’s presence and influence, which could lead to the promotion of policies that align with Beijing’s strategic interests, from infrastructure projects to economic partnerships. For the Pacific region, this risks skewing the forum’s agenda in favor of Chinese-funded initiatives, potentially sidelining critical local concerns such as climate adaptation, fisheries management, and drug trafficking.
Perhaps more disruptively, the Solomon Islands could seek to undermine the participation of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the Pacific: the Marshall Islands, Palau, and Tuvalu. This could be done through bureaucratic delays, diplomatic maneuvers, or even limits and hindrances on the island nations’ ability to voice key concerns in the forum’s agenda. This would signal a shift in regional alignments, making it increasingly costly for nations to support Taiwan diplomatically. The isolation of Taiwan’s allies would also weaken regional diplomatic cohesion and increase their vulnerability to Chinese economic and political overtures. At the global level, this tactic would serve as a microcosm of China’s broader goal to isolate Taiwan internationally and could have ripple effects by encouraging other countries to reconsider their stance on Taiwan’s diplomatic status, further reducing its global standing.
