China’s not-so-subtle attempt at gunboat diplomacy over the past two weeks has encountered various levels of indignation in Australia and throughout the region. Many have pointed out that the passage of a three-ship naval task group about 500 kilometres off Australia’s east coast took place in international waters, a comment echoed in China, where officials have accused Australian politicians of ‘deliberately hyping’ the issue.
Many commentators have seized this opportunity to highlight the failure of Australia’s naval shipbuilding program over generations to meet the necessary ship production numbers for national security. They also point out that the current surface-ship building program will not take effect until the 2030s.
This misses a deeper point, however: what if the Chinese navy did sortie into our waters, or worse still, decided to interfere with our air and maritime movements by declaring, for instance, an air defence identification zone, similar to what occurs in the waters off Taiwan every time the Taiwanese disturb the Chinese Communist Party? Could we take any action?
The answer to this question goes to the core of Australian defence policy in 2025.
Military strategy is often described as ‘ends, ways, and means’, which serves as a useful model for understanding the application of strategy. In this context, the ends represent the ambitions of the 2024 National Defence Strategy, which aims to deter any hostile acts against Australian territory, its people and international interests. Deterrence is achieved through effective diplomacy, a strong economy and, in this case, military hard power.
With deterrence established in policy as an end, the ways logically follow. Referring to our observations from the past two weeks, ways would manifest as an operational concept or plan to deny the Chinese open access to our home waters. This might involve an Australian-flagged maritime task group that could be rapidly deployed and capable of shadowing and deterring the Chinese. Typically, this task group would consist of frigates, submarines and supply ships. Other methods would include air power, such as maritime surveillance and strike aircraft from the Royal Australian Air Force.
With ends and ways established, the final element of applying military strategy is the means, which essentially represent the forces and platforms necessary to carry out military operations. Here, the Australian Defence Force may face some challenges in the period leading up to 2030, as much of the capability being acquired by the government through its National Defence Strategy is not scheduled to become operational before the end of the decade. While the National Defence Strategy outlines ends, ways and means for the early 2030s, there is some risk in generating the tools for military strategy in the interim.
This brings us back to the dilemma posed by the Chinese naval group off Australia over the past two weeks. Despite the fleet of ships remaining in international waters and the comments from many that this activity raises no concerns for our future defence capability plans, it nonetheless does reflect on our current military capacity and highlights the urgent need for ongoing improvements in force projection, sea control and, where necessary, maritime strike.
More ships, submarines and long-range missiles will be essential for future solutions beyond 2030. But what about the present? One potential solution is to use the Australian Army, whose advancements in developing a future force focused on Australia’s maritime and littoral approaches are often overlooked in political discussions regarding the nation’s defence forces.
In the realm of land-based maritime strike, the government could accept some capability risk to expedite the acquisition of land-based anti-ship missiles. These systems can deter any foreign navy or future hostile power from entering home waters. The army could deter a blue-water navy in local waters, much as the Ukrainian Army has driven off the Russian Black Sea Fleet. While the Pacific Ocean is vast and land-based strike has its limitations, this strategy offers an immediate capability for defending home waters and addressing recent events, in contrast to ships and missiles not scheduled to arrive until 2030.
With the rapid acquisition of an army system to complement developments in the navy and the air force, Australia could calibrate its ends, ways and means both now and beyond 2030 as major projects are delivered.
The presence last week of a Chinese naval task group off our east coast in international waters demonstrates the sudden and dramatic pressure the Chinese navy can exert on our neighbourhood. Australia must implement an effective military strategy now; it cannot wait until 2030.
