Donald Trump may be the unlikeliest candidate imaginable to bring about revolutionary change in China, the world’s most powerful dictatorship. He is also the least interested in pursuing that end, given his deep personal admiration for Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Yet history may have placed him in the position to accomplish inadvertently for China what Ronald Reagan did intentionally for the Soviet Union.
Reagan used soaring rhetoric to express the universal appeal of political freedom and to offer Moscow’s communist leaders a peaceful way out of their geopolitical and geoeconomic trap — America, “the shining city on the hill,” vs. “the Evil Empire” and ”Mr. Gorbachev, tear down this wall.”
Trump eschews the noble sentiments and missionary zeal that made Reagan a global icon. He generally leaves it to other leaders to run their own countries without interference or preaching from Washington (with one temporary human rights exception noted below). He focuses instead on regaining America’s prosperity and power. As he sees it, U.S. global dominance — Theodore Roosevelt’s “big stick” — will speak for itself and keep adversaries at bay without intrusive adventures like U.S. democracy-implantation and nation-building.
Opponents of U.S. intervention point to Iraq and Afghanistan as negative lessons: removal of obnoxious and dangerous regimes does not assure democratic outcomes. The demise of Nazi Germany, Fascist Italy and Imperial Japan and their replacement with peaceful, flourishing democracies tell a different story, as does the more peaceful overthrow of Soviet-era dictatorships in Eastern and Central Europe and parts of the Mideast and Africa.
Complex issues in diverse situations preclude rote solutions, and military force is the least desirable method of liberating oppressed populations — World War III is not the way to encourage democratic evolution in China, Russia, Iran or North Korea. The nature and degree of regime control and the likelihood of acceptable outcomes must inform any decision to help a population change its government. The most important factor is the commitment of the people themselves to make fundamental change, and the risks and sacrifices they are prepared to accept to achieve their goal.
Americans met that test in 1776, and France willingly came to the aid of the colonies. Ukrainians have proved themselves as committed to defend their own independence from Russian aggression. The Biden administration has supported their resistance but seemingly prefers a stalemate to complete victory for Ukraine.
