Myanmar stands at a critical crossroads, facing an escalating internal crisis and mounting geopolitical pressures, notably from China’s intensified support for the military junta that seized power from the democratically elected government more than four years ago.
Beijing’s backing has sparked widespread anger by sustaining a regime unlikely ever to achieve legitimacy or stability, directly opposing the aspirations of Myanmar’s people.
China clearly prioritizes its economic and strategic interests over Myanmar’s human rights, sovereignty and internal peace. Genuine peace in Myanmar will remain elusive as long as the junta remains in power, given that the regime itself is the primary source of the nation’s instability and widespread suffering.
India now faces a pivotal opportunity to redefine its role and enhance its influence in Myanmar and the broader region.
China’s Tightening Grip on Myanmar’s Junta
Despite severe battlefield losses, a collapsing economy, and robust resistance from ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) and pro-democracy forces, Myanmar’s military junta remains afloat, primarily due to increased backing from China. Beijing fears the junta’s collapse would threaten its strategic investments and broader One Belt, One Road (OBOR) infrastructure scheme.
China supports the junta through various means, including applying pressure on EAOs in northern Myanmar; supplying arms, aircraft, drones and communication technologies; providing pilot training; and deploying technicians to Myanmar’s defense industries. Additionally, Beijing has stationed private security personnel at strategic sites such as Kyauk Phyu Port in Rakhine State, a crucial node in its OBOR network. This clearly signals China’s determination to protect critical infrastructure even as the junta’s grip weakens.
However, China’s expanded aid has failed to stabilize Myanmar’s military regime, revealing inherent weaknesses within the junta, including systemic corruption, incompetence and a lack of legitimacy. Increasingly, ethnic minority regions along Myanmar’s northern borders perceive China’s involvement as exploitative, with Beijing reinforcing junta control without providing benefits to local communities.
Rising Anti-China Sentiment
China’s coercive border closures, disruption of essential supplies and overt military support enabling the junta’s oppressive tactics have significantly heightened resentment among Myanmar’s ethnic minorities and the Bama majority. These groups increasingly view China as complicit in their oppression and suffering. That creates a critical strategic opening for India.
India’s Opportunity to Lead
Traditionally, New Delhi has balanced relations between Myanmar’s military junta and EAOs, primarily focusing on cross-border security, especially stability in Manipur. This approach reflects India’s concerns about instability spreading into its northeastern states. Yet, the military junta remains the main driver of regional instability, enabling transnational criminal networks to flourish.
India now has the opportunity to move beyond immediate security interests and adopt a broader strategic role. By engaging pro-democracy forces and ethnic resistance groups, India can foster lasting stability in Myanmar while bolstering its image as a responsible regional leader. Stability in Myanmar serves India’s security, trade interests, regional connectivity and the development of its northeastern region. Distancing itself from the military junta and increasing support for democratic and ethnic groups would highlight India’s commitment as a responsive regional power.
A Road Map for Engagement
India’s approach should incorporate multidimensional humanitarian, economic and diplomatic initiatives:
- Humanitarian support: Establishing a humanitarian corridor to deliver aid to displaced communities, highlighting India’s dedication to the welfare of the Myanmar people.
- Strategic partnerships: Strengthening relationships with pro-democracy resistance and ethnic minority organizations to build regional goodwill and stability.
- Economic engagement: Expanding cross-border trade and infrastructure projects with local stakeholders — not through the military junta — to demonstrate a commitment to inclusive development.
- Diplomatic advocacy: Championing democracy and human rights within regional and international forums, distinguishing India’s principled stance from China’s exploitative approach.
India is uniquely positioned not merely as a counterweight to China but as a genuine partner committed to peace and progress in Myanmar. By embracing a forward-looking strategy focused on democracy, human development and regional stability, India can significantly enhance its regional influence and reaffirm its role as a leading democratic power.
At this crucial juncture, India’s decisions will profoundly shape its future engagement with Myanmar and Southeast Asia. Aligning with the aspirations of Myanmar’s people, India can foster a stable, prosperous neighborhood resistant to authoritarian influence and committed to a just and equitable future.
