China is drawing lessons from the Trump administration’s still unfinished “peace plan” for Russia and Ukraine, watching to see how far Washington will go to secure an agreement, and whether that means concessions to Moscow.
President Xi Jinping is using the opportunity to sharpen the lines around his long-declared objective: Unification with Taiwan. This leaves the self-governed island in a dangerous place, as Washington’s signaling grows fuzzier and Xi’s intentions more explicit.
Taiwan’s fate has been linked to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine before. In 2022, Japan’s former Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said: “Ukraine, today. Maybe East Asia tomorrow.”
- China is watching the Trump administration’s “peace plan” for Russia and Ukraine to see how far Washington will go to secure an agreement and whether that means concessions to Moscow.
- President Xi Jinping is using this opportunity to sharpen his objective of unification with Taiwan, leaving the self-governed island in a dangerous place as Washington’s signaling grows fuzzier and Xi’s intentions more explicit.
- Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te has announced new defense spending in response to China’s warnings and rhetoric around unification, and Washington’s Asian allies will need to deepen coordination to treat the island’s defense as central to regional security.
Echoing a similar sentiment, military strategist and retired Australian major general Mick Ryan has warned that China could use this moment to present its own plan. Xi has always preferred to take control of the island without military action, he notes. “As such, we might expect the Chinese Communist Party to present the Trump administration with a 28-point plan for Taiwan, either in secret or publicly, in the near to medium term,” he suggests.
That strategy has already been spelled out in Beijing’s 2022 White Paper, The Taiwan Question and China’s Reunification in the New Era. It asserts that the island has always been part of China, rejects international involvement, and frames unification as essential to national rejuvenation. Beijing has warned it is prepared to use force to achieve its goals.
Last week, China warned against “stirring up trouble” in the Taiwan Strait after New Zealand’s largest naval vessel transited through the waterway. The sharp response was aimed not just at the Kiwis, but at any supporter of the island tempted to wade into this issue.
This is part of a broader diplomatic push. Trump and Xi held an hour-long phone call on Nov. 24 to discuss trade and mounting frictions between China and Japan sparked by comments on Taiwan from Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi.
Trump made no mention of the island in his public post about the call. But China’s foreign ministry devoted significant space to Xi’s remarks on the issue. Xi said Taiwan’s return to China is an integral part of the postwar international order. That phrasing is deliberate. He is trying to cast Beijing as the defender of the global system created since World War II and is pointing to Taiwan — and by extension any country that supports it — as the destabilizing force.
In response, Taipei announced another $40 billion in new defense spending. President Lai Ching-te said the money would be used to fund new weapons from the US and enhance the island’s asymmetrical capabilities. These could include small, relatively cheap weapons which would in theory inflict high costs on any Chinese invasion force until American help arrived. The message was aimed at Beijing as much as Washington.
Lai has reason to be anxious. As my colleague Hal Brands notes, the coming months could prove decisive for the island’s security. Trump’s attention appears focused on a better relationship with China, while Xi is getting bolder with his rhetoric around unification.
Taiwan is a crucial pillar of the global economy, producing roughly 90% of the most advanced computer chips. A serious conflict would blow a hole through the supply chains underpinning everything from smartphones and cars to artificial-intelligence data centers.
Washington is under no illusions about this threat. The latest report from the US–China Economic and Security Review Commission — a bipartisan congressional body — lays out how China has advanced its ability to mount an invasion, and could launch a blockade or assault with little warning. It also added that Beijing’s messaging changes depending on the audience. It downplays tensions in English, while domestic narratives increasingly frame Taiwan’s “provocations” as justification for action. Meanwhile, the People’s Liberation Army is pushing ahead with modernization plans and closing the gap with US forces.
Lai’s defense plan is sensible, but could get held up in a politically gridlocked parliament. Taipei will need to push hard to release funding for drones, missiles, mobile launchers and resilient command systems. It also needs to go further with civil-defense drills and efforts to counter Chinese influence operations.
Washington’s Asian allies — Japan, Australia, South Korea and the Philippines — will need to deepen coordination and treat the island’s defense as central to regional security. Continuing with transits through the Taiwan Strait, despite the risk of annoying China, would go a long way toward reasserting the importance of international law.
Trump’s Ukraine plan may feel distant from what is happening around Taiwan. All Beijing sees is an opportunity.