House Speaker Mike Johnson faces a tough fight to retain the gavel even after an endorsement from Donald Trump, a test of the president-elect’s influence over his party amid the limits of an extraordinarily narrow majority.
Trump’s endorsement could help Johnson shore up support, especially after the speaker navigated a chaotic government funding fight earlier this month that drew the ire of his right flank. But with a historically small majority in the new Congress, Johnson can afford only a single Republican defection when the House picks a new speaker on Friday if every member votes.
And one House Republican – Rep. Thomas Massie – has already said he doesn’t plan to vote for Johnson. The Kentucky Republican told CNN on Monday that Trump’s endorsement does not change his position.
Members had been preparing for a Trump endorsement, one source told CNN. But the same source warned that it may not be enough. For now, Johnson allies are keeping close tabs on members who have not yet committed to backing him.
In addition to Trump’s endorsement, any GOP holdouts could also face pressure from Johnson allies over the potential consequences for the incoming president if the House does not quickly elect a speaker.
Congress has never before tried to certify a presidential election without a House speaker in place, and Republicans across Washington are privately trying to game out what might happen if that scenario were to arise.
So far, GOP lawmakers and senior advisers say they have found no clear options to certify Trump’s win without a speaker, according to multiple sources. Some Johnson supporters are pointing to that as part of their argument for why on-the-fence GOP lawmakers should support the current speaker.
“To oppose Johnson now weakens the GOP and strengthens Hakeem Jeffries. It also puts at risk the Electoral College Certification scheduled for 6 Jan. These guys serve as a ‘fifth column’ for the Dems,” Nebraska Rep. Don Bacon told CNN.
Johnson allies undertake extensive whip operation
Over the last several weeks, Johnson’s deputies have launched an expansive whip operation, but there are still intense challenges to getting the Louisiana Republican to 218 votes – the magic number needed to win the gavel.
One Republican lawmaker familiar with the outreach told CNN that while the vast majority of GOP members understand how “monumentally stupid” it could be to have an extensive speaker’s battle, not every member is swayed by an argument that the party needs to be united going into the inauguration.
“A vast majority of Republicans are rational, but not every member of the Republican conference is rational,” the member lamented.
A CNN tally of members prior to Trump’s endorsement found that nearly a dozen others had not yet committed to Johnson.
Trump said on Monday that Johnson has his “complete” and “total” endorsement.
“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration. Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!” Trump said in a post on Truth Social.
The big shadow over Johnson’s speaker race: Trump certification
Even former Florida Rep. Matt Gaetz — who has previously clashed with Johnson and his leadership team — suggested his onetime colleagues should back the current speaker rather than risking Trump’s certification as president.
“We could never have held up McCarthy two years ago for concessions if a Trump certification hung in the balance. Now, it does,” Gaetz said on X, calling resistance to Johnson “futile.”
While the speaker has no formal role in certifying the results, the House needs to be called into session. And without a speaker, the House can do nothing besides vote to elect a speaker, vote to recess and vote to adjourn. Lawmakers can’t even be sworn in or set the rules of the House.
“You’re literally just stuck in a cyclical pattern of speaker votes with the clerk overseeing,” one GOP source said, describing what would happen without a speaker at the start of a new Congress.
And unlike during the House’s last speaker-less debacle in 2023, there will be no temporary leader poised to take over. When former Speaker Kevin McCarthy was ousted, Rep. Patrick McHenry took over as speaker pro tempore because he was McCarthy’s pick when he first took the gavel. But in the 119th Congress, a speaker must first be elected before he or she can appoint a pro tempore.
Some Republicans are privately discussing ways to push the procedural limits so that Congress can certify Trump’s win without a leader. One person described an “emergency break glass option” that would involve allowing the House to vote to go into a special session. But that would be a tough sell for many institutionalist Republicans.
Another option that is being privately floated around Washington: Pushing the date of Trump’s certification.
“There is no constitutional mandate that it’s got to be on January 6,” another GOP source said, as long as it happens before January 20, the day of inauguration.
Johnson’s allies insist he will keep his gavel on Friday and is working hard to lock down the votes. But Republicans and Democrats alike are searching for answers about what would happen to certification if the House remains speaker-less three days later.
“When you don’t have a speaker, that impacts thousands of the important tasks of governing,” said one GOP lawmaker who is helping Johnson whip votes. “Clearly the whip team is aware that not having a speaker is a problem for lots of reasons.”
