The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has refrained from conducting a large-scale drill near Taiwan following its leader’s annual policy speech – an address seen as less provocative than last year’s, which drew sabre-rattling from Beijing.
Figures released by Taiwan’s defence ministry showed there was no increase in the number of PLA warplanes and warships detected near the island following William Lai Ching-te’s Double Tenth address on October 10.
According to the Taiwanese figures, the PLA conducted seven to 27 sorties per day in the week following Lai’s speech.
It was a different story last year, when the PLA responded with a show of force around the island in war games dubbed “Joint Sword-2024B” that involved 153 warplane sorties.
Beijing said at the time that the massive drill aimed to punish Taipei for its provocation.
The most recent large-scale PLA exercise near Taiwan was on April 1, when its warplanes conducted 76 sorties in what Beijing said was a “serious warning” to “Taiwan independence forces”.
Mainland Chinese military commentator Song Zhongping said the PLA was poised to respond to Lai’s actions and rhetoric with war games near Taiwan “at any time if necessary”.
“Military exercises are conducted based on the situation,” Song said. “The PLA’s current capabilities are very strong – such drills no longer require lengthy preparation. Once deployed, the troops are ready to fight immediately.”
Lai drew Beijing’s ire with his Double Tenth address last year when he said Taiwan and the mainland were “not subordinate to each other”.
But this challenge to Beijing’s “one China” policy was not mentioned in this year’s speech, which marks the founding of the Republic of China, Taiwan’s official title, and sets out the government’s priorities and cross-strait vision.
Lai still took a pro-independence stance in his address but this omission made it less provocative than previous speeches, according to analysts.
Beijing sees Taiwan as part of mainland China and has not ruled out the use of force to take control of the island.
Most countries – including Taiwan’s main defence backer the United States – do not see the island as an independent nation and oppose any change to the status quo by force.
In his recent speech, Lai pledged to raise defence spending to more than 3 per cent of gross domestic product next year, and to 5 per cent by 2030. He also unveiled the T-Dome air defence system to “counter enemy threats” – a plan Beijing said would only “drag the island into a dangerous situation of war”.
The PLA’s near-daily presence near Taiwan in recent years is part of a pressure campaign against the island, as well as preparation for a potential cross-strait conflict.
The PLA conducts what it calls routine patrols, but has also held several large-scale, targeted drills around the island – involving its ground, air, naval and rocket forces – since Nancy Pelosi visited Taipei in 2022, when she was the US House speaker.
Three of those exercises were carried out in response to speeches and policy announcements made by Lai since he took office in May 2024.
The first was held just three days after Lai was inaugurated, when he declared the “non-subordination” position – prompting Beijing to accuse him of “stubbornly adhering to a Taiwan independence stance”.
Another big drill was held four days after Lai reaffirmed that stance and a “commitment to resist annexation” in October last year in his first Double Tenth speech. Beijing said the remarks “seriously undermined peace and stability” across the Taiwan Strait.
More major drills were held on consecutive days in early April this year after Lai set out 17 national security measures on March 13 aimed at countering threats from Beijing.
Lai also called mainland China a “foreign hostile force” – his most confrontational language to date.
Taiwan’s defence ministry also reported a spike in PLA sorties in June. Fifty PLA aircraft were detected near Taiwan on June 19, a day after British patrol vessel the HMS Spey transited the Taiwan Strait.
Beijing’s defence ministry said the British navy was “deliberately disrupting the situation and undermining peace and stability across the strait”.
Although there have been no large-scale PLA drills in October so far, there were some exercises reportedly held around the time of Lai’s speech – moves seen as deterrence efforts against “independence forces”.
State broadcaster CCTV reported on October 10 that night landing drills had been conducted in waters off Fujian – the southeastern province closest to Taiwan.
Three days later, CCTV released footage showing a live-fire exercise in waters off the mainland’s southeast coast. The reports did not say when either drill took place.
Beijing condemned Lai’s speech hours after it was delivered, with spokesman Guo Jiakun saying it had “distorted right and wrong, peddled the separatist fallacy of Taiwan independence, and distorted and challenged historical facts and international consensus, once again exposing his stubborn nature as a troublemaker … and warmaker”.
