While Danish intelligence does not see an immediate threat of a kinetic war, it claims Russia’s growing belligerence has included repeatedly threatening its warships and helicopters in Danish waters. These details are part of a new Danish intelligence threat assessment released Friday that concludes Russia is in a state of increasingly intense “hybrid war” with NATO. That is just below the threshold of armed conflict and comes at a time of mounting tensions between Moscow and the alliance.
“We have seen several incidents in the Danish straits, where Danish air force helicopters and naval vessels have been targeted by tracking radars and physically pointed at with weapons from Russian warships,” Danish Defense Intelligence Service (DDIS) Director Thomas Ahrenkiel stated at a press conference on Friday.
Russian warships had sailed on collision courses with Danish vessels during their passage through the straits, Ahrenkiel added. In addition, “a Russian warship has been anchored in Danish waters for over a week,” Reuters reported from the press conference. That suggested “possible interference from Moscow if Denmark tried to curb movements of Russia’s ‘shadow fleet’ of tankers used to circumvent Western sanctions on its oil exports imposed over its war with Ukraine.”
“Russia is using military force to try to intimidate Denmark and force it to abandon compliance with shipping rules in the Baltic Sea,” the Danish intelligence chief warned.
“Russia highly likely sees itself as being in conflict with the West, in which the hybrid means employed are kept below the threshold of armed conflict,” the report notes. “The DDIS assesses that Russia is currently conducting hybrid warfare against NATO and the West. It is highly likely that the hybrid threat from Russia against NATO will increase in the coming years.”
As examples, in addition to the aforementioned threats against its naval assets, Danish intelligence said that Russia “has deployed fighter jets to protect its shadow fleet as it carries Russian oil out of the Baltic Sea and has violated the airspace of NATO states with, for instance, fighter jets, helicopters and attack drones.”
“The states that have been most affected by Russian airspace violations in recent months are Poland, Estonia, Finland, and Romania,” the report adds.
Russia’s hybrid war with NATO countries goes far beyond these measures, with accusations of cyber attacks, clandestine sabotage operations, widespread GPS jamming and much more.
“Since the spring of 2025, Russia’s aggressive military behavior towards NATO countries has further intensified,” according to the assessment. The recent Russian drone incursions into Poland and Romania and violations of Estonian airspace by three MiG-31 Foxhound interceptors have raised suspicions that Russia, which denies involvement, is behind this drone wave. However, there is no conclusive evidence, several European officials state.
“It’s possible,” that there is a Russian connection to the drone incursions, “but there are currently no concrete indications,” Belgian Defense Minister Theo Francken said. “That needs to be investigated. Personally, I think these drones are very often an example of a hybrid threat. This is a way to sow unrest. That has been Russia’s pattern for many years.”
