Continuing policy initiatives and the resulting turmoil in Washington in the early weeks of the new Trump administration substantially add to deep uncertainty and angst in the Indo-Pacific about the status and likely outlook for international relations and the regional order. Unfortunately, the initiatives provide few clear paths forward for regional order and stability, as the Trump administration’s moves further complicate existing contested regional dynamics influenced by a wide range of conflicting determinants.
Trump Initiatives
Tremendous changes are underway in U.S. government policies and practices. Waves of presidential orders aim to radically reduce the size, cost, and impact of U.S. government organizations, although some of these policies are being challenged in court. Tens of thousands of government workers have lost their jobs. Foreign aid and other spending abroad have been frozen. The FBI, CIA, and other agencies protecting the United States at home and abroad are being downsized. Defense spending is reported to be reduced as well.
In terms of foreign policy, the United States has withdrawn from the landmark Paris Climate Change Agreement and the World Health Organization, and shunned the G-20 foreign minister’s meeting because of a dispute with the host government, South Africa. President Donald Trump has prominently threatened Canada, Mexico, Denmark, Panama, and Columbia with harsh measures if they don’t meet his demands. His administration’s drive to deport undocumented migrants to their home countries adds to friction with other states.
Heading the list of major policy changes is the reversal of past U.S. policy, going back to the origins of NATO over 75 years ago, to strongly support European allies against the threat of the expanding Soviet Union and now Vladimir Putin’s Russia. Trump’s outreach to Putin and rebuke to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, and supporting remarks by administration foreign policy and defense leaders, signal an end to U.S. leadership in supporting Ukraine in resisting Russian aggression, as demonstrated by the U.S. decision to vote against a United Nations General Assembly resolution on the third anniversary of the Russian invasion. Instead, Trump and his lieutenants are seeking a Russia-U.S. accord on how to end the Ukrainian war without Ukraine or NATO countries included in the discussion.
A thaw in Russia-U.S. relations, an anticipated China-U.S. summit, purported reductions in U.S. defense spending, announced and anticipated tariffs, and increased U.S. demands for greater burden sharing by allies and partners – what this all means for future U.S. relations with Indo-Pacific and the overall regional order is subject to wide-ranging speculation, but in the end remains to be determined.
The Contested Indo-Pacific Order
What is clearer is that the Trump administration’s actions worsen the challenge of determining clear policy options and strategies in an Indo-Pacific order already deeply in flux and subject to conflicting pressures with no clear path forward. It’s important to remember that the region remains largely at peace, unlike Europe and the Middle East, and thereby may warrant less immediate international attention, suggesting that the predicament worsened by the Trump initiatives will not be resolved soon.
