Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has suspended his presidential campaign with a confusing message to voters: He will take himself off the ballot in certain key states, but is encouraging supporters to vote for him in safe red and blue states so that he can feature in a “contingent election” if former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris tie.
In the battleground states, Kennedy said he’s supporting Trump.
Could Kennedy feature in a “contingent election?” No.
He could not participate unless he won electoral votes, which does not seem mathematically possible. Perhaps he’s envisioning an elector going rogue and supporting him in defiance of voters, but Kennedy did not share details of his thinking.
With two presidential candidates fighting over 538 Electoral College votes, a tie scenario is more than possible. It’s surprising there has only been one tied election so far, in 1800, between Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr.
That tie resulted from a failure of coordination by Democratic-Republicans, but it led to the nation’s first “contingent election,” decided in the House of Representatives.
Could a tie happen this year?
Yes. While a tie is not a likely outcome, it is something to be ready for. Here is one plausible scenario for the 2024 election: If Harris wins Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona and Nevada and a single electoral vote in Nebraska, all of which Joe Biden won in 2020, but she loses Pennsylvania and Georgia, there’s a tie, 269-269. The website 270 to Win also has more tied-election scenarios. Visualize your own 269-269 scenario with CNN’s interactive election map.
What happens if there’s a tie?
A “contingent election.” According to the 12th Amendment, if no candidate gets a majority of the Electoral College votes, the new Congress, which would have just been sworn in on January 3, chooses the president. The Senate would choose the vice president.
