A seat on the UN Security Council would give the Philippines its highest-profile platform yet to confront Beijing over its expansive claims in the South China Sea.
But as President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr courts global support in his bid to become a non-permanent member, the question remains: can Manila outmanoeuvre China on the world stage?
“We need to further strengthen multilateralism efforts that will reform the Security Council and revitalise the general sentiment,” Marcos Jnr said last weekend during a toast at the “vin d’honneur”, a formal gathering at the presidential palace attended by diplomats, including China’s ambassador.
The president’s appeal, which stressed the importance of a “rules-based international order”, asserted his administration’s determination to assert its place in global diplomacy. He pointed to the Philippines’ “rich experience” in peacekeeping, consensus-building, and fostering cooperation as the foundation for its candidacy for the 2027–28 Security Council term.
“With a long history and a credible record of multilateral diplomacy,” he said, “the Philippines is in a very strong position to take on more leadership roles that seek to advocate on consequential issues in the global agenda.”
But while Marcos Jnr paints a picture of high-minded diplomacy, analysts say his campaign carries clear strategic intent: leveraging the Security Council seat to corner Beijing.
‘Embarrass Beijing’
China, a permanent member of the UN Security Council with veto power, looms large over Manila’s bid. Beijing’s sweeping South China Sea claims – which encompass almost all of the disputed waterway – collide head-on with the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone.
With a seat on the council, Manila could raise South China Sea-related resolutions, even though China is certain to veto them.
Still, the very act of putting forward such resolutions could be a diplomatic coup. “The votes would embarrass Beijing,” said Greg Poling, director of the Southeast Asia programme at the Centre for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
“If combined with additional resolutions in the General Assembly and new arbitrations, [this strategy] would impose costs on China and manoeuvre Beijing towards an eventual compromise,” he told This Week in Asia.
Manila, according to experts, is well-positioned to secure a seat. The Philippines has deployed 14,000 troops to 21 UN peacekeeping missions over six decades and previously held a non-permanent seat on the council in 2004–2005.
Not only that, but within the Association of Southeast Asian Nations – a 10-member bloc that also includes Vietnam, Indonesia and Singapore – there is an explicit agreement to support each other’s Security Council bids.
“All 10 members of Asean agreed years ago to support each other in a rotation on the Security Council,” Poling said. “It was Vietnam’s turn previously and now it is the Philippines. So, if any member of Asean doesn’t support the Philippines’ bid, it will be violating an explicit promise.”
A legacy play?
The campaign is not without its sceptics, however. Some observers questioned how much practical impact a non-permanent seat could wield, given China’s veto power. Jennifer Parker, an expert associate at the Australian National University’s National Security College, warned that the Philippines’ bid – though likely to garner significant support – faced challenges.
“Vietnam has publicly supported the Philippines’ bid, but it’s unclear how much broader support the Philippines has at this stage,” Parker said.
“A seat on the council would help the Philippines further highlight its concerns about China’s actions in the South China Sea. However, any position they hold in the council is unlikely to result in resolutions on the issue, given China’s veto power.”
The UN Security Council comprises five permanent members – China, France, Russia, Britain and the United States – and 10 non-permanent members elected for two-year terms. Securing a seat requires a two-thirds majority vote in the General Assembly.
Other analysts see the bid as a way for Marcos Jnr to craft a legacy. Abdul Rahman Yaacob, a research fellow at the Lowy Institute’s Southeast Asia programme, said a seat on the Security Council could serve both domestic and strategic purposes for the Marcos administration.
“With the support of Asean as a regional organisation, Manila’s campaign for a seat may likely succeed,” he told This Week in Asia. “China and the US, including US allies, are competing for influence in Southeast Asia, and they would like to be seen as supportive of Asean rather than as an unfriendly partner.”
Poling said the Philippines was competing against Kyrgyzstan for the seat and, with the support of Asean and the US, should be the favourite to win.
Asean member states that have served as non-permanent members of the UN Security Council include Vietnam, which most recently held a seat for the 2020–2021 term, Indonesia and Singapore. Malaysia has been elected for four separate terms.
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The Philippine Department of Foreign Affairs has made it clear that the push for a seat is no ordinary diplomatic endeavour, previously calling it “very important” for the country.
“We’ll be able to engage in the most important dialogues and debates and vote on important issues,” Eduardo de Vega, an undersecretary at the department, told local media.
“We have interests in the rule of law and international law, maintaining peace and stability,” he was quoted as saying. “We have millions of Filipinos overseas and we need the world to continue living and aspiring for goals for which the UN was created.”
Others say that a seat could bolster the Philippines’ moral position in its territorial dispute with China. Sherwin Ona, a visiting fellow at Taiwan’s Institute for National Defence and Security Research, argued that the campaign underscored the importance of the rule of law in international relations.
“This places the Philippines in a stronger diplomatic position and can open opportunities to strengthen our advocacies and position in the South China Sea,” said Ona, who is also an associate professor of political science at De La Salle University in Manila.
The road ahead remains uncertain, however. “To what extent this strategy may work is questionable,” Rahman said. “But having a place on the council is still critical if Manila wants to reinforce its position vis-a-vis China.”
He agreed that the Marcos administration was likely to gain support from the US, other Western states, and Asian powers such as Japan and South Korea. Other countries wishing to signal their endorsement of Manila’s South China Sea stance may also back Manila’s bid.
But with the 2027–28 election set for mid-2026, Parker said it was too early to predict whether it would succeed.
“Much will depend on China’s stance and whether it chooses to actively lobby against the Philippines’ bid,” she said.
