e high-stakes meeting will test how far both countries are willing to steady ties strained by trade disputes, tech rivalry and geopolitical competition, analysts told.
When United States President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet face-to-face on Thursday (Oct 30) at the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in South Korea, the world will be watching how the two will chart the next phase of their relationship – marked by both rivalry and co-dependence.
The high-stakes meeting, which has been touted by Trump and US officials for days and was officially confirmed by China on Wednesday, will test how far Beijing and Washington are willing to steady ties strained by trade disputes, technological rivalry and geopolitical competition.
Notably, it will also be their first meeting in Trump’s second presidential stint, and comes amid simmering trade tensions that flared again this year.
Their last face-to-face encounter was back in November 2019 – at the G20 Summit in Osaka, Japan, where both sides sought to de-escalate a bruising tariff war that had rattled global markets.
Analysts say the agenda this week is broad with several key issues that each reflects a different facet of US-China competition – economic, strategic and political – following months of manoeuvring aimed at building leverage ahead of the summit.
“Both sides have incentives to maintain dialogue amid global economic uncertainty,” Jonathan Ping, an associate professor at Bond University in Gold Coast, Australia, told CNA.
“The US and China are focused on domestic outcomes and are looking for pragmatic opportunities to de-escalate the trade war.”
Officials from both sides have signalled that the meeting would be more focused on keeping channels open, rather than securing breakthrough deals.
The White House said both leaders would meet on the summit sidelines in South Korea, describing it as part of ongoing high-level engagement between the two countries.
Beijing, meanwhile, has adopted a more cautious tone. In comments on Oct 24, Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun said “China and the US were maintaining close communication regarding a possible meeting between the two heads of state” – and further details would be released in due course.
For Beijing, the focus will be on preserving calm and setting the tone for future engagement.
This summit is about “stability and strategic guidance”, said Sun Chenghao, a fellow at Tsinghua University’s Centre for International Security and Strategy.
But Washington’s priorities will be about pressing economic concerns – notably addressing the US trade deficit with China while securing greater market access for US firms, and seeking cooperation on issues such as fentanyl control and critical minerals.
“Leaders’ meetings play two roles,” added Sun.
“One is strategic leadership; the other is setting strategic expectations. Knowing a summit is coming makes both sides more willing to cool rhetoric and take constructive steps.”
Against this backdrop of cautious diplomacy and calibrated messaging, CNA looks at what issues are on the agenda – and how each side hopes to shape the outcome.
TRADE: AN “ONGOING GAME OF ECONOMIC CHESS”
Trade remains the central pillar, and flashpoint, of the Trump-Xi meeting, according to analysts.
Tensions between Washington and Beijing flared earlier this year after the Trump administration linked trade policy to national security.
In February, Trump declared a national emergency over synthetic opioids, including fentanyl, and authorised additional tariffs on Chinese goods – connected to what he called a “threat to US public health and security”.
The move marked a significant escalation in his strategy of using economic pressure to advance enforcement goals.
A month later in March, the US Trade Representative’s office expanded tariffs on a wide range of Chinese imports, citing unfair trade practices and industrial subsidies which it said distorted global markets.
Beijing retaliated in April with a 34 per cent tariff rate on US goods, accusing Washington of violating international rules.
China’s State Council Tariff Commission called the measure a “necessary countermeasure” to defend national interests, and tightened export controls on rare-earth materials critical to US industries.
For Washington, priorities include addressing structural imbalances in bilateral trade, securing access to rare earths and protecting key agricultural exports such as soybeans, which have fallen to historic lows because of high tariffs China has imposed on US imports.
Beijing, meanwhile, will be focused on limiting escalation and avoiding unilateral concessions.
Issues like rare earths, soybeans and fentanyl are all matters that China is willing to discuss, said Ren Xiao, a professor at Fudan University’s Institute of International Studies.
“But they must be discussed on the basis of mutual respect,” he added.
Observers said both sides enter the summit with distinct, and shifting, advantages on the trade front.
Some added that Washington holds stronger cards through its expanding web of trade alliances and diversification strategies, while others believe Beijing retains leverage through its dominance in critical resources and its capacity for long-term economic planning.
China “would probably want market access to the US and perhaps fewer technology restrictions”, said Chong Ja Ian, an associate political science professor at the National University of Singapore (NUS), adding that “a major breakthrough over fundamental issues” was unlikely.
