There are seven states that could conceivably be won by either candidate. The campaigns of Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have focused their energy in these areas. They can be broken up into two general categories:
3 Midwestern battlegrounds, aka “the blue wall” — These are the manufacturing and union-heavy states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. They used to be more reliably Democratic but have shifted as their populations changed and as Trump has appealed to White voters without a college degree.
When Trump won the White House in 2016, he won all three. When Joe Biden won in 2020, he won all three. If Harris wins all three this year, she will likely have the electoral votes to be president. But polls suggest close races in all three. Turnout will be key, which for Harris means appealing to suburban women and Black voters.
The blue wall states usually vote the same way. The last time they did not all go to the same candidate was in 1988 — notably also a year when California was red and West Virginia was blue. In those eight elections since 1988, the only time the blue wall states went to a Republican was in 2016, when they were won by Trump.
4 Sun Belt battlegrounds — These states with growing populations include Arizona and Nevada in the West and North Carolina and Georgia in the East. Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina used to be more reliably Republican. Trump won North Carolina twice, but the margins were close in 2020. The last Democrat to win there was Barack Obama in 2008. Biden was the first Democrat to win Georgia since Bill Clinton in 1992 and Arizona since Clinton in 1996.
1 vote in Nebraska is a battleground — 48 states award all their electoral votes to the victor. Nebraska and Maine do it differently, awarding votes by congressional district. The state of Nebraska is safe Trump territory, but the congressional district around Omaha is a battleground. That one vote could end up being crucial in the event of a close race in the Electoral College.
Note: It’s the reverse situation in Maine, the only other state that does not award all of its electors to the statewide winner. Trump could pick up a single electoral vote in Maine.
