What is unfolding in the Middle East is not simply another regional flare-up. From a nuclear and chemical attack perspective, the risks are real, evolving, and in some cases not yet fully understood.
Iran’s nuclear programme remains a central concern. While it is generally assessed that Tehran has not yet fielded a fully deployable nuclear weapon or a reliable delivery mechanism, it is widely believed to possess significant stockpiles of enriched uranium. That alone presents a credible threat. Even without a conventional nuclear device, such material could be used in a radiological dispersal device, a so-called “dirty bomb”, designed less for mass destruction and more for contamination, disruption, and psychological impact.
However, the more immediate nuclear risk may not lie in weapons at all, but in infrastructure. The Bushehr Nuclear Power Plant is a particular vulnerability. Any strike, deliberate or accidental, on that facility could result in the release of radioactive material. Given the prevailing wind patterns and maritime conditions in the Gulf, contamination would almost certainly drift westward, potentially affecting population centres and critical infrastructure across Saudi Arabia, Iraq and Kuwait. Today, Iran issued a new target list, which includes the Barakah nuclear power plant on the Gulf coast, which is about 180 miles west of Abu Dhabi. The regional consequences would be significant and long-lasting.
Chemical weapons remain another concern. Iran retains the technical expertise to develop such agents, and its historical use of chemical weapons during the Iran/Iraq war is well documented. When I was the Iraqi Kurdish Peshmerga’s chemical weapons advisor from 2015-17, ISIS and Iranian-backed militias targeted us with chlorine and mustard agents. It is reasonable to assume that Iran still possesses these capabilities.
More immediately concerning, however, is the threat posed by toxic industrial chemicals. We have seen this exploited before. Russia, in Ukraine, has repeatedly targeted industrial sites containing hazardous materials, effectively turning civilian infrastructure into improvised chemical weapons. It is a tactic that is deniable, disruptive, and highly dangerous to unprotected populations, and it is clear Moscow is giving Tehran much support and advice.
There are already worrying indicators of similar risks emerging here. Strikes on desalination facilities are particularly troubling. These sites handle and store substantial volumes of industrial chemicals, and any damage could lead to significant toxin releases. In densely populated coastal regions, the impact on civilians and first responders could be severe. If the conflict intensifies, it is reasonable to expect such attacks to increase in both frequency and scale.
In short, the nuclear and chemical dimensions of this conflict are not receiving the attention they deserve. The risks are credible, and the consequences could be profound. We have seen before, particularly in the aftermath of 9/11, what happens when responders are exposed to hazardous environments without adequate protection. The long-term health consequences, including chronic respiratory disease, cancers, and other conditions, were significant. That lesson should not be forgotten.
In my opinion, Trump and the West should immediately declare a red line on attacking nuclear plants and the use of chemical weapons, and this must not be an Obama-style red line which disappears at the first challenge. Obama’s red line on chemical weapons use in Syria was idiotically and cynically derailed by Ed Miliband in September 2013, resulting in terrible death and suffering among the Syrian population as the Assad regime waged unrestricted chemical warfare on its own people. This demonstrated lack of Western resolve also encouraged Putin to invade Ukraine, as he knew the West would take no action in response. The mullahs should be left in no doubt that those days are over.
I’ve said before that if you have no morals or scruples, you would use chemical weapons all the time, as they are morbidly effective, easy and cheap to use. I would judge that the remaining leadership in Tehran and the IRGC have no morals or scruples, and we should be prepared for the consequences of that.