It took almost a month. But on the tarmac of Florida’s Palm Beach International Airport, Donald Trump abruptly announced that peace talks to end the conflict with Iran had begun.
“We have had very, very strong talks. We’ll see where they lead. We have points, major points of agreement – I would say almost all points of agreement,” the US president told reporters beside the steps of Air Force One.
On the surface, it seemed that his warning had worked. A day and a half earlier, Mr Trump had issued Tehran a blunt ultimatum: reopen the Strait of Hormuz within 48 hours or face strikes on its energy infrastructure.
The abrupt shift in position, from the threat of energy infrastructure being destroyed to fresh peace talks, has fuelled debate and scepticism in Washington about what is really happening behind the scenes.
While countries braced for a dramatic escalation in the war, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, the president’s envoys, were reportedly in touch with Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, about ending the conflict.
The pair, who have become a conflict-solving double act since Mr Trump’s return to office, were in Miami meeting with a Ukrainian delegation over the weekend. They were also coordinating the terms of a 15-point peace deal that could end the war in Iran.
Talks were indirect. Egypt, Pakistan and Turkey have passed messages between the US and Iran for two days as they desperately tried to avoid a global recession caused by rising energy prices and the collateral effects on markets and business.
The foreign ministers of the three countries reportedly held separate talks with Mr Witkoff and Abbas Araghchi, Iran’s foreign minister. By Sunday evening, there was a readiness for Washington and Tehran to start talking.
“The Iranians were forthcoming, and the Americans wanted to move as well because of the markets and the oil prices,” an Israeli source told Axios.
The suggested terms of the peace deal would prevent Iran from having a missile programme for five years, requiring the country to halt uranium enrichment and decommission the Natanz, Isfahan and Fordow nuclear facilities that the United States attacked in 2025.
In return, the US would agree to provide guarantees against the recurrence of another war and close its primary base in the region, which hosts some 50,000 troops.
The discussions were judged serious enough for Mr Trump to call off his threat to strike Iran’s power plants. This move reassured markets already suffering from the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
“Fifteen points. They’re not going to have a nuclear weapon. That’s number one, two, and three,” Mr Trump told reporters on Monday. “They’ve agreed to that.”