In a closed-door workshop in Hawaii in March on U.S.-China relations, an American participant asked a question that has now surfaced repeatedly in Washington: Does the war with Iran increase the risk that China will use force against Taiwan?
The question reflects a familiar assumption: China is a tactical predator, waiting for a moment of U.S. distraction to strike. But that view misreads how Beijing frames the Taiwan issue. Beijing is not looking for an opportunity to use force, as Peking University professor Jie Dalei and I responded at the workshop. It is looking for every possible way to not to have to use it.