At least 26 Iran-linked ships carrying oil and gas appear to have bypassed the US blockade of the Strait of Hormuz.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence, which publishes shipping industry analysis, has noted that more than two dozen ships with cargo have sailed in and out of Iranian ports since the US blockade went into effect on April 13.
These vessels are part of Iran’s shadow fleet, a network of oil tankers and shell companies that help Iran export oil, launder the proceeds, and procure materials for its weapons programme. This network has been crucial for keeping the Iranian economy afloat despite international sanctions.
Meanwhile, US Central Command, which oversees Middle East operations, said that it had directed 27 vessels to turn around or to return to an Iranian port. These vessels probably include the US-sanctioned Raine and the Iranian-flagged Artman container ship, according to shipping data and war monitors.
But analysts have noted that some vessels appear to have evaded the blockade, raising questions about whether the US military could halt all vessels transiting through the Strait, as Donald Trump has said would occur.
The US could still interdict these vessels in international waters before they reach their final destination but this would require greater resources from the US outside the Middle East at a time when the military has already concentrated its presence in the region.
Lloyd’s has noted that 11 tankers with Iranian cargo have left the Gulf of Oman or the Persian Gulf since the blockade took effect.
Analysts also highlighted that a Greek-owned bulker left an Iranian port on April 15 and passed the blockade line on April 19.
War monitors and open-source maritime data show a number of vessels that appear to have been turned around, though it is unclear whether those vessels violated the blockade or were exempt.
These vessels include the Liberian-flagged Basel and the Marshall Islands-flagged CECI, which departed from Iranian ports on April 15 and sailed along the coastline of Oman toward reported destinations in Brazil, as shown on MarineTraffic, a maritime data platform.
Both those ships left two days after the US said it would not allow vessels to enter or exit Iranian ports. The UK later clarified that ships carrying humanitarian aid would be allowed to transit, but it is unclear what cargo the Basel and the CECI were carrying out of Iran.
On Sunday, the US seized one sanctioned Iranian ship, the Touska, which was part of the Islamic Republic of Iran Shipping Lines (IRISL), itself a sanctioned entity.
The Touska was detected in China in March, according to MarineTraffic, including at the Gaolan port in the city of Zhuhai, home to some of the largest liquid chemical storage terminals in China.
Past shipments from Gaolan to Iran have carried sodium perchlorate, a precursor material used to produce solid-fuel propellants for missiles.
The Touska may have been carrying such materials with defence use, though the US has not confirmed exactly what cargo was found aboard.
Since war broke out on Feb 28, analysis by The Telegraph, reviewed by experts, has identified at least five Iran-flagged ships, all sanctioned as part of IRISL, that docked at the Gaolan port and arrived in Iran.
Shipments of sodium perchlorate would suggest that Iran continues to have the ability to produce missiles.