China’s military has been studying President Donald Trump’s war on Iran for lessons that could prove helpful in any future conflict of its own, according to Western officials familiar with the matter, scrutinizing US offensive capabilities as it sees the strategic balance shifting in its favor in the Indo-Pacific.
Beijing was likely closely observing America’s military performance on display in Iran and gaining highly valuable information that it would almost certainly factor into its plans for any potential conflict over Taiwan, said the officials, who requested anonymity to discuss a sensitive matter. Taiwan is a self-governing island that China claims as its territory — a view Taipei rejects.
China’s Ministry of Defense didn’t reply to a request for comment.
While China is still gaming out the economic and diplomatic consequences of the war, President Xi Jinping would probably welcome the diversion of US attention and resources toward the Middle East and away from the Indo-Pacific, the officials said. They cited the Pentagon’s redeployment of military assets from Asia to Iran as a tangible reason for China’s military to draw positives from the conflict.
US Military Footprint in the Indo-Pacific
Where the US owns or has had access to military bases in the region
Note: Based on data from 2022
Source: US Library of Congress
The perceived advantage for China’s military suggests a second US adversary is benefiting from Trump’s war, after US allies warned Russian President Vladimir Putin was inadvertently emerging as the winner thanks to the rising oil price and easing of US sanctions.
- China’s military is studying President Donald Trump’s war on Iran for lessons that could be helpful in any future conflict of its own, according to Western officials.
- Beijing is likely gaining valuable information from America’s military performance in Iran that it would factor into its plans for any potential conflict over Taiwan, the officials said.
- China’s Ministry of Defense didn’t reply to a request for comment on the matter, which Western officials believe suggests a perceived advantage for China’s military due to the diversion of US attention and resources toward the Middle East.
In contrast to most other Group of 20 leaders, Xi has so far stayed silent on the conflict engulfing a major Chinese friend, as officials assess the full scale of the fallout from the war. While China has in the past repeatedly said Taiwan must be brought under its control, by force if necessary, Beijing hasn’t indicated it’s preparing to do so any time soon.
Xi has also embarked on China’s biggest purge of generals since Mao Zedong’s chaotic rule ended in 1976 — an anti-corruption campaign that’s raised questions about the readiness of the People’s Liberation Army to go to war.
Breaking Precedent
Former US Ambassador to China Nicholas Burns said on Wednesday in London that Beijing had shown the “same, intense focus” on the battlefield in Ukraine over the past four years and it was “not surprising at all” that its military would be trying to learn from US action agiainst Iran. Burns urged the need to for the US to maintain close military alignment with allies including Australia, Japan and the Philippines.
“Keeping Europe engaged with the US and the Asian allies is really critical,” Burns said at Chatham House. “That’s not in the Chinese interest. But that’s keeping China off balance.”
Influential Chinese commentators like Hu Xijin, former editor-in-chief of the tabloid Global Times, have been more outspoken, however, in invoking parallels with Taiwan. Hu wrote last week on Weibo, a Chinese social media platform, that the grinding war showed how “strained” the US military capabilities have become since Iran had already been weakened by decades of sanctions.
“It is truly amusing that some American elites are still talking grandly about taking on the PLA in the Taiwan Strait,” he wrote.
US allies in Asia have been on guard as the Pentagon continues to pour weapons into the war. The US is sending a unit of up to 2,400 Marines from Japan to the Middle East, along with its command vessel that carries a squadron of F-35 fighter jets and helicopters.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has confirmed the US may need to relocate air defense assets to the region amid reports the Pentagon has moved launchers from an advanced missile defense system out of Asia.
Meanwhile, South Korean President Lee Jae Myung has confirmed the US may need to relocate air defense assets to the region amid reports the Pentagon has moved launchers from an advanced missile defense system out of Asia.