Chinese media narratives on the Middle East conflict present this external crisis as a validation of China’s national security strategies. While official statements show diplomatic and humanitarian support for Iran, media narratives reveal Beijing’s strategic outlook on the conflict and how it wants the war to be perceived and interpreted domestically.
We analysed state media editorials, trending social media hashtags and Chinese-language commentaries on commercial and self-publication platforms. Described more fully in a research report published today, this showed four major trends.
Chinese media and analysts describe the conflict as part of the United States’ behavioural pattern of war and aggression in violation of international law. They point to several cited causes behind the US’s actions while deeming them to be uncredible or illegitimate. Examples are a desire for regime change and achieving US-Israeli regional hegemony; the threat of Iran’s nuclear weapons program; and the aim to control resources. Chinese reports contrast regional instability caused by US and Israeli ‘overreach’ with China’s multilateral and cooperative approach to international relations. They portray China as a trusted partner in the region, engaging in ‘shuttle diplomacy’ and leading mediation efforts.
Online commentaries condemn violence and the attacks on non-military targets in the Gulf, but praise Iran’s resilience in countering US-Israel ‘bullying’ tactics. They interpret Iran’s retaliation not merely as an emotional response to supreme leader Ali Khamenei’s assassination but also as a result of strong institutions and military self-reliance. The importance of Khamenei gets less emphasis than the strength of the system. Commentators liken this to China’s own response to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which they say demonstrates self-reliance and preparedness through strategic reserves and diversification of supply chains.
Chinese analysts also express confidence in China’s economic and military capacity to withstand the fallout of the war and capitalise on the US’s weakened position regionally and globally. They portray China as a responsible power and a stabilising force for the Global South in a world order disrupted by ‘US unilateralism.’
The overarching message is that self-reliance is essential in surviving a breakdown of the rules-based world order. Iran conflict is portrayed as a ‘lesson in the cold logic of superior firepower’, emphasising the need to build domestic consensus, a cohesive social system and a powerful, autonomous military-industrial complex to survive a world without rules.
Chinese commentators take differing positions on their country’s wait-and-watch strategic approach to the Iran conflict.
Some call for ‘joint opposition’ (apparently meaning multilateral opposition) to US unilateralism and hegemonism, preferring a multipolar world order that follows UN principles. But some Chinese intellectuals are advocating for ‘non-interventionism 2.0’, in which China is more directly involved where its interests are at stake. There are also calls for ‘reconstruction’ of the world order that mention Chinese President Xi Jinping’s various global initiatives without specifying what this new order would look like.
Other Chinese commentators go further. While supporting the rule of international law, they use the conflict as an example of raw power politics and argue that a ‘rogue’ US must be dealt with through national strength. Analysts say that economic and industrial capacity, superior tech and military capabilities are necessary in gaining an advantage over the US in a rapidly changing global order. This reflects Xi’s comprehensive national security approach of securing trade and supply chains, improving social governance and domestic stability, pursuing technological self-reliance and advancing civil-military technology fusion.
Chinese media commentaries portray the Middle East conflict as proof that social cohesion and self-reliance make a country more resilient to changes in the world order than domestic opposition and policy fluctuations. Chinese analysts attribute Iran’s resilience to social cohesion, alongside military and institutional strength, and they dismiss Iranian supporters of the US-Israeli strikes as brainwashed. They rarely mention the recent anti-regime protests in Iran and imply that domestic opposition in the US against President Donald Trump and policy U-turns as a systemic weakness. Chinese state media contrasts this with China’s robust governance system which mobilises domestic consensus and maintains policy continuity. China has, for more than a decade, been building its strategic reserve capacity of essential commodities and diversifying supply chains. This, analysts say, has given their country an advantage over regional competitors such as Japan, India and South Korea.
For the domestic audience, state media and online commentators convey confidence in China’s governance system and preparedness through self-reliance. For external observers of Chinese strategic narratives, they promote China as a responsible global power, capable of diplomatic manoeuvring and mediating, increasingly in tandem with partners such as Russia and Pakistan.