U.S. navy began its blockade of Iranian ports, aimed at the Iranian tankers and the other Iran-friendly ships which have managing to traverse the Strait of Hormuz.
Trump had been demanding Iran open the international waterway, which usually sees the transit of one-quarter of the world’s seaborne oil trade. Since the war has begun though, traffic has plunged 90 percent, sparking global supply panic and rising oil and fuel prices.
Following the breakdown of talks between U.S. and Iranian negotiators on Sunday, Trump announced the U.S. would blockade the already impacted strait to retaliate against Iran.
But it doesn’t appear to be working. In the first 24 hours since the operation began, at least seven ships have made it through including four tankers linked to Iran.
One was a Chinese-owned vessel sanctioned by the U.S. in 2023 for carrying Iranian oil. That was spotted on the other side of the Strait in the Gulf of Oman on Tuesday.
Along with question as to how the U.S. would feasibly police the strait in this way, there are also questions around who this is aimed at and why.
Many have interpreted the U.S. blockade as being aimed at Iran’s shadow fleet which carries oil supplies many suspect go to China- the destination for nearly all Iran’s oil exports.
Since the U.S. and Israel launched their offensive on February 28, oil tanker traffic through the strait is down from a prewar 138 ships per day to a daily average of 3.4,according to TankerTrackers.com.
That includes 150 tankers, 100 of which are vessels of the so-called shadow fleet, the maritime intelligence company wrote. or sanctions-evading ships largely understood to be delivering oil to China via Malaysia.
In the first weeks of the war, Iran showed it was ready to attack ships, with vision of at least two tankers being hit by Iranian missiles or speedboats.
However in the past fortnight, a pattern emerged, calculated through shipping data sites, which appeared to show some ships taking a certain route close to the Iranian coastline, to get out.
Reports emerged that ships were having to make payments—varying from $2 million paid in the Chinese yuan currency to crypto—and that Iran was perhaps operating a “toll booth” before allowing passage.
Trump has instructed the U.S. Navy to intercept “every vessel in international waters” which paid Iran a toll. “No one who pays an illegal toll will have safe passage on the high seas,” he said.
“It is unclear what the ultimate goal of the blockade is,” Andrea Ghiselli, assistant professor of international relations at Beijing’s Fudan University, wrote in an analysis for the Australian Lowy Institute think tank.
“One possible explanation was to put pressure on countries that import Iranian oil, especially China, to make them push Iran to accept American conditions for the end of the war.
Iran’s been making money
Analysts say first and foremost President Trump is applying a U.S. blockade to try and harm the Iranian economy.
Its sanctioned oil exports remains a central pillar of its economy, and since its ships have been the only ones regularly getting out through the strait since March, it has likely increased its cash flow by hundreds of millions.